The EU is sliding into a fuel crisis driven by a global supply shock caused by the US-Israeli attack on Iran. It has already triggered protests, early signs of shortages, and warnings of the wider economic impact.

This has resulted from the disruption of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for global energy shipments. Oil prices surged above $120 per barrel during the escalation, and while crude fell below the $100 mark after a two-week US-Iran ceasefire was announced on April 7, it remains well above the $70 level before the war. Prices have remained volatile amid uncertainty over the truce and continued disruption to shipping through the strait.

Why has diesel become more expensive than gasoline?

The European market has shifted toward higher diesel consumption following decades of tax policies that lowered diesel taxes compared to gasoline.

The EU’s refining system produces a different mix of fuels than the market consumes. A barrel of crude oil typically yields about 40-50% gasoline, but only around 30–40% diesel and jet fuel combined, with the rest made up of heavier products.

This mismatch has left the bloc structurally short of diesel. The region is a major net exporter of gasoline but relies on imports for a significant share of its diesel and jet fuel.

Diesel has traded above gasoline prices at the pump in several EU countries.

Why are farmers and truckers protesting?

Rising diesel prices are hitting sectors most dependent on the fuel, particularly agriculture and road freight. The EU’s transport sector is facing a “fast-moving diesel shock,” according to logistics platform Logifie.

Ireland has become the most visible flashpoint of the crisis. Fuel protests have spread nationwide since this past Tuesday, led by farmers, truckers and transport workers, disrupting supply chains and transport networks, according to local media.

Blockades have strained fuel distribution, with queues forming at petrol stations with some running dry amid panic buying. On Thursday, the government called in the army to clear the blockades.

During a protest march in Dublin on Friday, demonstrators carried a coffin with “RIP Ireland” written on it.

Fuel protesters now leaving O’Connell Street for Kildare Street, carrying a coffin pic.twitter.com/5tbT6wkMNL

— Nicky Ryan (@NickyRyan_) April 10, 2026

What do jet fuel shortages mean for summer travel?

Airports across Europe could face “systemic” jet fuel shortages within three weeks if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, according to a letter sent by an airport industry group to the European Commission, as cited by the Independent.

According to Corriere della Sera, “some airports on the continent have been experiencing shortages in jet fuel quantities for days without officially reporting it.” The outlet cited its sources on Friday as saying that “it’s such a sensitive issue that official talk remains tight-lipped,” adding that Brussels is hoping the truce between the US and Iran will hold.

The war in the Middle East has delivered a major global energy supply “shock” that will push up prices further and leave the world economy facing weaker growth, the IMF has warned. 

The US-Israeli attack on Iran and subsequent Iranian retaliatory strikes across the region, including on energy infrastructure, have stressed global markets, driving oil prices higher and raising fuel costs. The conflict has effectively choked flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a key route that accounts for a significant part of global oil and gas supply. 

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said on Thursday that the turmoil amounts to a negative supply shock that is “large, global and asymmetric,” hitting countries differently depending on their reliance on imported fuel.  

Global daily oil flows have fallen by about 13% and LNG shipments by some 20%, she said, warning that even the IMF’s “most hopeful scenario” now involves a “downgrade” to world growth. 

“Had it not been for this shock, we would have been upgrading,” Georgieva said, adding that infrastructure damage, supply disruptions and loss of confidence will leave lasting “scars” on the global economy. 

A further 45 million people have been pushed into food insecurity as a result of the escalation, taking the total number facing hunger to more than 360 million worldwide, according to the IMF. 

The grim outlook comes as Washington and Tehran are expected to hold high-stake peace talks in Pakistan this weekend, after they agreed a two-week ceasefire late on Tuesday. Iran says any ceasefire must include Lebanon, which has been heavily bombarded by Israel this week. The scaled-up attacks, which killed hundreds and wounded more than 1,100, have raised concerns that the Iran ceasefire could be derailed.

The White House has issued a warning to staff against using insider information on the Iran war to trade on financial markets, several media outlets reported on Thursday, citing unnamed administration officials. 

Federal employees are barred from gambling while on government property, while federal ethics regulations prohibiting the use of non-public information for personal gain. Some major policy decisions made by US President Donald Trump have, however, been preceded by well-timed bets, prompting some experts and politicians to question whether information may have leaked in advance.

The White House Management Office reportedly sent a warning email on March 24, a day after Trump ordered a five‑day pause in planned strikes on Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure.

Multiple news outlets, citing market data, later reported that about 15 minutes before the abrupt announcement of a policy shift, futures markets saw a surge in trading activity. More than $760 million worth of oil futures contracts reportedly changed hands in under two minutes. Several reports also said three Polymarket accounts collectively earned over $600,000 after correctly anticipating the timing of this week’s ceasefire with the Islamic Republic.

There was no evidence of leaks or misuse of insider information within the administration, with one official describing the email, first reported by the Wall Street Journal, as a timely “reminder” amid discussion of large market trades.

In recent months, media reports have pointed to heightened trading around conflict-related events. Reuters reported in January that an unknown trader made about $410,000 after betting on the removal of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. 

There were also reports of users in Israel placing bets on Iranian missile strikes on Israeli territory, with some cases involving attempts to influence related reporting in order to affect betting outcomes.

Earlier this month, Polymarket apologized after public backlash over allowing bets on whether American airmen from a downed US fighter jet would be rescued from Iran.

Mexico is looking to tap unconventional natural gas deposits to boost energy sovereignty, President Claudia Sheinbaum has said, as global energy markets reel from the shock triggered by the US-Israeli war on Iran.

The US’ southern neighbor is its biggest importer of natural gas, with the supplies covering roughly three-quarters of Mexican demand, while domestic output from conventional fields has declined and no longer meets the country’s needs.

“If we continue like this, we’re going to import more and more natural gas,” Sheinbaum said on Wednesday. “The other options are what’s called shale gas, unconventional gas.”

Unconventional deposits refers to gas trapped in dense rock formations such as shale, which do not allow the fuel to flow freely and require more complex extraction techniques, including hydraulic fracturing or fracking. Development has so far been limited due to environmental concerns, high water usage, regulatory uncertainty, and political opposition.

“What’s the problem with importing?” Sheinbaum asked rhetorically. “Just look at how lots of countries in the world are suffering because of what happened in Iran.”

Sheinbaum’s remarks come amid broader tensions between Mexico City and Washington.

In January, US President Donald Trump said he could order strikes against drug cartels on Mexican territory following the abduction of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro by US commandos over alleged narcotics trafficking.

Trump has also claimed that cartels effectively control Mexico and accused the country of “flooding” the US with drugs and illegal migrants.

Mexico has cooperated on anti-drug efforts but rejects any foreign military presence, with Sheinbaum warning any such action would violate national sovereignty.

US energy giants ExxonMobil and Chevron have reported lower production and a financial fallout linked to the Iran war, citing operational disruptions and market volatility as a result of the conflict and restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz regarding shipping linked to the West.

In a filing to US regulators on Wednesday, ExxonMobil flagged a potential hit of up to $6.5 billion to earnings, noting that its global oil and gas production in the first quarter of 2026 will be about 6% lower than in the final quarter of 2025, partly due to attacks on facilities in Qatar and the UAE in which it holds stakes. Chevron on Thursday reported first‑quarter production of 3.8–3.9 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, down from 4.05 million in the previous quarter.

Exxon, which has significant exposure to the Middle East, said the region accounts for around 20% of its global output. It added that damage to assets, including gas liquefaction facilities in Qatar, “will take a prolonged period to repair,” and that it is unable to estimate when full operations will resume.

The company also said the largest hit to its first-quarter earnings, estimated at $3.5 billion to $4.9 billion, is linked to price swings caused by the conflict.

US artificial intelligence (AI) startup Anthropic has built a new model it claims is too powerful to make publicly available, according to the company’s executives, as cited by several media outlets.

The firm said on Wednesday that it is discussing the model dubbed Claude Mythos Preview and its capabilities with the US government.

The news comes a month after US President Donald Trump banned government agencies from using Anthropic’s AI for six months, accusing the company of pressuring the Pentagon and endangering national security. At the time, the US Department of Defense struck a deal with the company’s rival, OpenAI, to use its tools in classified military systems.

Internal materials on the unreleased Claude Mythos model were inadvertently leaked in February after thousands of documents were left in a public data cache.

Also earlier this month, Anthropic accidentally published over 500,000 lines of secret code for its Claude AI, including unreleased features and developer notes, calling it “human error, not a security breach.”

In an interview with the New York Times, Graham stressed that the model marks “the starting point for what we think will be an industry change point, or reckoning, with what needs to happen now.”

In a Wednesday blog post, Anthropic said the Mythos model will be available only to a select group of tech and cybersecurity companies, citing concerns over its ability to find and exploit security flaws. The company added that it won’t be made publicly accessible until safeguards are in place to limit its most dangerous capabilities.

Rather than releasing the technology widely, Anthropic plans to provide access through a new industry partnership, Project Glasswing. The initiative, which includes over 40 organizations such as Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Google, and NVIDIA, will test the model’s ability to identify and help fix vulnerabilities in critical software.

When the first US and Israeli missiles hit Iran more than a month ago, an oil price of $150 per barrel was considered a doomsday prediction. But the price of physical Brent crude is already a hair’s breadth from $150, while the futures price hasn’t caught up yet.

The Brent front-month futures price – which serves as a barometer for 80% of the world’s crude oil – has sat above $100 per barrel for several weeks. Rising and falling as US President Donald Trump changes the war’s aims and end date, it closed above $109 on Thursday, already higher than at any point since the Ukraine conflict escalated in early 2022.

But to understand just how severe the current crisis is becoming, it’s important to look at the Dated Brent price. Only widely monitored during times of market disruption, this represents the actual on-the-spot price that purchasers are paying for Brent cargoes in the North Sea. On Thursday, it reached $141.37, a level unseen since the onset of the 2008 financial crisis.

This speaks to a severe supply shortage on the ground as buyers are willing to pay a huge premium to get their hands on barrels, not in the near future, but right now. 

What is the significance of the huge spread?

The front-month is also the domain of speculators who have no intention of ever receiving any oil: instead they seek to take advantage of price shifts and exit their positions before delivery. The front-month price does of course reflect physical realities – but it’s also somewhat financialized. 

The fact that actual physical Brent crude is moving at prices $32 higher than the front-month indicates that the physical supply of oil is extremely tight. Typically, the spread between the front-month contract and Dated Brent is less than $2, although in a tight market it can drift somewhat higher. What we are seeing now is highly abnormal. This higher Dated Brent price isn’t the result of hedge funds or momentum traders bidding up the price. This is what is changing hands on the ground for real barrels. 

The epicenter of the crisis is the Strait of Hormuz. A lot depends on what happens in this chokepoint. Less than 40km wide at its narrowest point, just under a third of the world’s seaborne oil transits the strait on its way from Middle Eastern producers to global markets. 

Once a free international waterway, the strait has been turned into a de-facto toll road overseen by the Iranian military. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) decides which vessels are allowed through, with limited numbers of Chinese, Indian, Pakistani, and South African ships making the passage in recent weeks. Daily transits have fallen from around 130 before the war, to low single figures last month, and around a dozen this week.

Why isn’t front-month Brent trading closer to the spot market?

Based on the price difference, the Brent futures market is still relatively sanguine about the prospects for a resolution. Some analysts, however, believe the market isn’t fully reckoning with the supply shortage that is now driving spot prices through the roof. There is also the typical internet chatter about the futures market being manipulated to keep some kind of lid on oil prices. In other words, the big spread is garnering a lot of attention. 

Looking at other benchmarks, there are signs of a deepening crisis. Dubai and Omani oil is now selling for well above $150, reflecting the difficulty these Gulf nations have in exporting their product, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – priced in landlocked Oklahoma – surpassed Brent by $3 on Thursday. This indicates that traders predict further uncertainties with the supply of seaborne Brent, and are pivoting toward American crude instead. 

Additionally, the WTI crude prompt spread (price difference between the two nearest contracts) widened to more than $16 per barrel on Thursday, the largest premium on record. This type of widening spread is often due to short-sellers who had bet on a price drop (in this case due to a quick end to the war) getting squeezed and buying back contracts to close their positions, in turn driving up front-month prices.

How high will oil go?

The vast spread between what hedge fund traders see on their Bloomberg terminals and what buyers are paying right now is a glaring red flag, suggesting a massive supply crunch. Physical oil prices are closing in on the psychological barrier of $150, and analysts have readjusted their worst case scenario predictions, with CNN declaring on Thursday that should the conflict drag on until June, a front-month price of $200 “isn’t as crazy as it sounds.” Left unsaid is the fact that at a front-month price of $200, the spot price would almost certainly be even higher.

Zooming out from Brent and WTI, there are dozens of different oil prices, representing more than 100 different blends of crude, their spot prices, and their varying futures contracts. All are higher than they were in February, and for the average person around the world the result is the same: the war on Iran has made fuel, food, and basic necessities more expensive, and life tougher.

Global recession is already inevitable this year, with energy-importing countries being hit the hardest.

This will become clear to many by June.

— Kirill Dmitriev (@kadmitriev) April 2, 2026

“Global recession is already inevitable this year, with energy-importing countries being hit the hardest,” Russian presidential envoy Kirill Dmitriev warned on Thursday. “This will become clear to many by June.”

Poland and Romania have to fulfill their obligations under an EU deal and buy €1.9 billion ($2.2 billion) worth of unneeded Covid-19 vaccines from Pfizer and BioNTech, a Belgian court has ruled.

The case is linked to the agreements struck by Brussels at the height of the pandemic. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has faced criticism over her role in the controversial deals.

At the time, the commission advocated collectively purchasing billions of shots and distributing them among EU member states struggling to contain Covid-19. It ended up signing multibillion-euro deals with vaccine manufacturers in 2020 and 2021.

Poland refused to comply with its part of the contract in 2022, pointing to an improving situation with Covid and potential abuse of its dominant position by Pfizer. Romania followed suit soon thereafter. The US pharma giant filed a lawsuit against both nations in 2023.

Under the ruling, Poland would have to buy Pfizer vaccines worth €1.3 billion while Romania would have to purchase shots worth €600 million.

Warsaw said it would “pursue all legal remedies available to it to amend this ruling and defend its interests.” Bucharest stated that the requested sum amounts to “the equivalent of ⁠a ... regional hospital in Romania” and also vowed to appeal the decision.

The controversial EU vaccine deal led to the so-called Pfizergate scandal, in which the European Commission and von der Leyen personally were accused of concealing details of negotiations with Pfizer and AstraZeneca.

Von der Leyen was particularly criticized for her refusal to disclose or preserve key text messages she supposedly exchanged with Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla. The issue even prompted a no-confidence motion in the EU Parliament last year, which she ultimately survived.

Fuel shortages have spread across France after drivers rushed to fill their tanks following the introduction of price caps, straining supplies at hundreds of stations, according to the Energy Ministry and media reports.

Around 900 stations have run out of at least one type of fuel, including around 700 operated by energy major TotalEnergies, the Energy Ministry said on Wednesday, blaming logistical issues rather than a national supply shortage.

Other estimates suggest that up to 1,600 sites may have experienced temporary shortages amid surging fuel prices linked to the Middle East conflict. Diesel prices in France reached record highs of around €2.25 ($2.45) per liter.

The US-Israeli war against Iran has triggered a global energy shock, sending oil prices surging and pushing fuel costs higher for consumers worldwide. The conflict has effectively choked flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a key artery for around a fifth of global oil.

On Tuesday, TotalEnergies extended its cap on gasoline and diesel prices at stations across mainland France until April 7, as demand surged following the measure. The company said traffic across its network increased sharply since mid-March, warning of “localized supply tensions,” particularly for diesel.

She said, “there is no risk of a supply shortage at this time,” adding that France still holds around 100 million barrels in strategic reserves. “We still have some leeway and will respond as necessary to occasional supply difficulties.”

Rising energy costs are feeding into the broader economy. French inflation accelerated to 1.9% in March, the fastest since August 2024, with energy prices jumping 7.3% after more than a year of decreases, data from statistics office Insee shows.

Shell CEO Wael Sawan warned last week that Europe could face fuel shortages as damage to Gulf energy facilities from the Iran war disrupts supplies, with jet fuel already affected and diesel likely next, followed by gasoline ahead of the summer driving season.

The crisis has also revived debate in the EU over energy sourcing. Before 2022, Russia supplied around a quarter of the bloc’s oil imports, but the EU has since sharply reduced purchases and plans a full phase-out by 2027.

German pharma giant Bayer has warned that European drugmakers must raise prices on new medicines in Europe to maintain profits amid US pressure to lower drug costs for Americans.

Last year, US President Donald Trump issued an executive order to force big pharma to benchmark key medicines sold in the US against prices in other countries, citing unfair pricing gaps. As of March, 16 major drugmakers have struck deals with Washington to cut prices in the US market in exchange for three years of tariff relief.

Though Bayer was not among the companies, the head of its pharmaceuticals division, Stefan Oelrich, told Bloomberg on Wednesday that the company is preparing for a new pricing system and is in talks with governments in Europe, Japan, and other wealthy nations to push for higher prices on new medicines to offset discounts for US consumers.

“In Europe, we need to raise the price level for new product launches,” Oelrich told Bloomberg. “Otherwise, as an industry – and this naturally applies to us as well – we’ll be faced with additional discounts in the US that wouldn’t allow us to recoup our total expenses.”

New drug launches in Europe have dropped by around 35% over the past ten months since Trump’s order, Reuters reported on Wednesday, citing GlobalData. Some companies have even withdrawn products from Europe. Amgen pulled cholesterol drug Repatha from Denmark. Indivior withdrew anti-addiction drugs Subutex and Suboxone from Sweden and other markets.

The UK is facing one of the largest economic shocks of any country from the Middle East conflict, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned, saying it is “especially exposed” to surging energy prices due to its heavy reliance on gas-fired power.

Energy importers across Europe are taking the hardest hit after prices surged in the wake of US- Israeli strikes on Iran in late February and subsequent retaliatory attacks across the region. The crisis has effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz – a key shipping route that carries about a fifth of global oil supply – choking off flows and driving up fuel and input costs.

In a blogpost by senior IMF officials including chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas earlier this week, the Fund said heavily indebted governments would have little room to cushion the blow, leaving households and businesses more exposed. It added the Middle East war’s impact would be “both global and highly uneven,” with some countries, including the UK, facing a renewed squeeze on living standards.

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer on Monday urged the public to “act as normal,” insisting that fuel supplies remain secure.

Economists warn that the British economy is now in a far weaker position than four years ago, when the EU and UK began to phase out affordable Russian gas and oil over the Ukraine conflict.

Former Bank of England deputy governor Howard Davies said this week the UK could be heading towards an energy crisis comparable to the turmoil of the 1970s, when oil prices quadrupled after the 1973 Arab-Israeli war as Arab producers imposed an embargo on Western nations. He warned that Middle East supply could remain constrained, keeping prices elevated – if not as high as $150 a barrel, then well above the roughly $60 seen before the current crisis.

UK natural gas prices have more than doubled since December, while Brent crude – near $60 before the conflict – briefly topped $116 earlier this week before easing to about $100 a barrel on Wednesday.

A US federal judge has blocked a Pentagon order designating Anthropic a national security risk, saying US officials likely broke the law and retaliated against the AI company over its public comments on how its technology should be used.

Anthropic, a leading developer of large language models, has been locked in a dispute with the Department of War over military use of its Claude system, with defense officials pushing to allow the technology for “all lawful uses.”

The company resisted, citing concerns that it could be used for mass domestic surveillance or fully autonomous weapons. The Pentagon ended talks, imposed the designation, and ordered contractors to stop using Claude.

On Thursday, US District Judge Rita Lin also blocked an order to cut all government contracts with Anthropic, calling it a “classic” First Amendment retaliation.

”Nothing in the governing statute supports the Orwellian notion that an American company may be branded a potential adversary… for expressing disagreement with the government,” Lin wrote, noting that the designation is typically reserved for “foreign intelligence agencies, terrorists, and other hostile actors.”

”The Constitution does not allow the government to wield its enormous power to punish a company for its protected speech,” the company stated in its lawsuit.

Last month Trump ordered all US federal agencies, including the Pentagon, to stop using Anthropic’s technology, granting the military a six-month phase-out period for systems already in use.

Secretary of War Pete Hegseth accused the company of “arrogance and betrayal,” saying the Pentagon would shift to a “more patriotic” alternative. The department has since struck a deal with OpenAI, whose CEO, Sam Altman, said it includes safeguards against mass domestic surveillance and requires human oversight in the use of force.

Anthropic warned that the actions have unsettled customers, including those without federal ties, and could cost the company billions in future revenue. Some agencies, including the Department of Health and Human Services and the General Services Administration, have reportedly already removed its products.

European countries could face fuel shortages as soon as next month as a result of the US-Israeli war on Iran, Shell CEO Wael Sawan has warned.

Major energy facilities in the Gulf have been damaged in the conflict, while maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a key waterway that handles about 20% of global oil flows, has nearly halted.

The war has already affected supplies of jet fuel, Sawan said on Tuesday, as cited by Reuters. Diesel is set to be next, followed by gasoline at the start of the summer driving season, he added.

“South Asia was first to get that brunt. That’s moved to Southeast Asia, Northeast Asia and then more so into Europe as we get into April,” Sawan said at an energy conference in Houston.

Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and Pakistan have reduced working hours and introduced fuel rationing. Japan and South Korea have released oil from strategic reserves.

The crisis has revived discussions in the EU about returning to Russian supply. Before 2022, Russia accounted for roughly a quarter of the bloc’s oil imports. Since then, the EU has sharply reduced the imports and is planning a full phase-out of all Russian oil by 2027.

The only major remaining route, the Druzhba pipeline via Ukraine, has been disrupted since late January. Hungary and Slovakia have accused Kiev of halting flows for political reasons.

Indian refiners have sharply increased purchases of Russian oil for delivery next month, paying above global benchmark prices, Bloomberg reports.

The US-Israeli war against Iran has virtually halted shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which carries around a fifth of the world’s daily oil supply, triggering a surge in oil and gas prices and increasing demand for Russian oil.

Companies in the world’s third-largest oil-importing nation have struck deals for around 60 million barrels of Russian crude for April, people familiar with the matter told the outlet on Wednesday. The cargoes were reportedly bought at premiums of $5 to $15 a barrel above Brent, a marked shift from the steep discounts that characterized Russian sales to India before the conflict.

The April volume is more than double the level of India’s purchases of Russian oil seen in February, according to Kpler. The buying spree followed a US sanctions waiver that allowed India to take Russian oil already loaded on tankers before March 5. 

The 30-day measure, announced by Washington earlier this month to ease shortages caused by the conflict, was later expanded to cover other countries and updated to include cargoes that were at sea before March 12. India’s imports of Russian oil have since soared, according to data from S&P Global Commodities at Sea.

The country scaled back purchases late last year under pressure from Washington, turning instead to Saudi Arabia and Iraq. Much of this Middle Eastern oil subsequently became trapped in the Persian Gulf after the outbreak of the Iran war, squeezing availability and pushing Brent crude prices to as high as $120 a barrel this month.

India imports 85% of its oil and nearly half of its natural gas. Around half of its crude oil and LNG shipments are routed through the Strait of Hormuz.

Officials in New Delhi expect the US waiver to be extended as long as disruptions through the strait persist, Bloomberg’s sources said.

The EU has put plans on hold for a complete ban on Russian oil imports, news outlets have reported. The move comes amid renewed turbulence in energy markets driven by the war in the Middle East. 

The draft law, part of the REPowerEU roadmap to phase out Russian fossil fuels by 2027, had been tentatively scheduled for April 15 but has now been removed from the European Commission’s published work calendar, Euronews and Reuters reported on Tuesday.  

An unnamed EU official was quoted as saying the delay was because of “current geopolitical developments.” Commission energy spokesperson Anna‑Kaisa Itkonen said she had “no new date to give.”  

Coordinated US‑Israeli strikes on Iran and subsequent Iranian retaliatory attacks across the region have led to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz to Western shipping, triggering a rally in oil and gas prices. Benchmark Brent has climbed to around $120 per barrel. The chokepoint normally carries around a fifth of the world’s daily oil supply. The IEA has warned that disruptions could potentially last months or years.  

The price rally has prompted Washington to ease sanctions on Russian oil. Some European leaders have begun hinting at a rethink of their own. The “oil blockade” of the Druzhba pipeline by Ukraine, which had halted Russian supplies to heavily dependent Hungary and Slovakia, has exacerbated tensions within the bloc. 

The EU’s energy policies have repeatedly come under fire. Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico has described the REPowerEU scheme as “suicide.” Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto has warned that unless the bloc lifts sanctions on Russian energy, it will “deal an extremely deep blow to the European economy.” 

The US ambassador to the EU has urged Brussels to ratify the previously signed trade deal with Washington or risk losing “favorable” access to US energy.

Under the deal reached last summer, the bloc agreed to a baseline tariff of 15% for all EU goods entering the US, while slashing its own tariffs on US industrial goods and some agricultural products to zero. The EU also agreed to buy $750 billion worth of US energy by 2028. The European Parliament is scheduled to vote on ratifying this week.

“I don’t know what will happen with respect to energy if they don’t go forward with the agreement,” Andrew Puzder told the Financial Times on Monday. Washington will still do business with the bloc “but just the terms may not be as favorable,” according to the envoy.

He cautioned that, if the EU is “going to survive economically, they need energy, and we can supply it.” The US will still want to “be encouraged to do that,” he added.

The bloc has been struggling to meet its energy needs following its decision to ditch Russian energy. Major EU economies like Germany, which were previously reliant on Russian energy, have become heavily dependent on US imports. The German Environmental Aid Association (DUH) reported in January that 96% of the nation’s LNG imports in 2025 came from the US.

Some EU politicians have called for the decision to ditch Russian energy to be reviewed, but the European Commission maintains that it will continue to pursue the full phase-out of Russian fossil fuels by 2027.

Kremlin envoy Kirill Dmitriev warned last week that the bloc could face an energy price “tsunami” as a result of Brussels’ “stubborn strategic stupidity.” He added that Russia has shifted it focus elsewhere, and the EU could end up being “at the end of the queue” of Russian energy buyers.

The EU’s focus on breaking its AI reliance on the US in favor of digital sovereignty could lead to ‘disaster’ for the bloc, Siemens CEO Roland Busch has told the Financial Times.

The European Commission plans to present a tech sovereignty package at the end of May aimed at developing cloud infrastructure and the AI sector. Brussels wants to reduce the bloc’s reliance on US digital solutions and services amid the tensions with Washington which have arisen since President Donald Trump’s return to office.

In an interview published on Tuesday, Bosch says the EU should instead use existing tools to boost economic growth while building its own AI infrastructure.

“You should not throttle your innovation speed for the sake of creating sovereignty,” Busch said. “This would be a disaster.”

The executive highlighted that the bloc risked being left further behind in the race to develop powerful AI tools if it did not simplify its regulations. Busch warned that delaying AI deployment in Europe due to security concerns or excessive regulation would slow growth, calling the approach “miscalibrated” compared to that of the US. As a result, he said, the US economy is a “fast-flowing river” embracing the technology, while Europe’s tech ecosystem resembles “standing water.”

In recent years, the EU has also passed laws regulating the digital and AI sectors, including the AI Act, the Digital Markets Act, and the Digital Services Act. Brussels has expanded its oversight of data transfers, cloud competition, and semiconductor production through initiatives such as the European Chips Act.

US officials have repeatedly raised concerns that the EU’s digital and AI rules could disadvantage American companies. The Office of the US Trade Representative has warned that discriminatory measures under existing laws could trigger retaliatory measures, including fees or restrictions on European services, and expressed unease about the AI Act’s enforceability outside Europe.

The EU’s repeated errors and its oversimplified view of energy transition are to blame for the energy crisis currently affecting the bloc, the head of Russia’s state nuclear corporation Rosatom has told RT in an exclusive interview aired on Monday.

Rosatom Director General Alexey Likhachev spoke with RT as angry EU consumers face higher fuel and energy costs, as well as broader increases in the cost of living amid the fallout from the US-Israeli attacks on Iran. The war has resulted in disruptions to traffic through the key Strait of Hormuz energy shipping lane and strikes on oil and gas infrastructure across the region.

According to Likhachev, the conflict has exposed deeper flaws in EU energy policymaking. “The energy crisis in Europe did not take shape over just a few years but over decades,” he said, blaming it on “a series of consistent mistakes, sometimes a crude and simplistic understanding of energy transition and environmentally friendly energy.”

He argued that an “unjustified rejection” of gas and restrictions on nuclear power have led to the current crisis.

Several EU countries have imposed restrictions on nuclear energy. It has been banned in Austria and Denmark for decades, while Germany, the bloc’s largest economy, phased out nuclear power completely in April 2023. Belgium and Spain have introduced phase-out policies or limits on reactor lifetimes. At the same time, other EU states, such as France, Slovakia, Hungary, Bulgaria, and Finland, continue to rely heavily on nuclear energy for electricity generation. Rosatom currently cooperates with Hungary on nuclear energy projects.

A solution to the crisis is a return to nuclear power, the head of Rosatom insists. Watch the full interview with Alexey Likhachev here.

Leonid Radvinsky, the Ukrainian-born billionaire owner of the adult content site OnlyFans, has died at the age of 43 after a long battle with cancer, according to multiple media reports.

Radvinsky “passed away peacefully” following a prolonged illness, Bloomberg cited an emailed statement from the London-based company as saying on Monday. His illness had not been publicly disclosed.

According to Forbes, Radvinsky’s net worth stood at $4.7 billion as of Monday. OnlyFans reported $1.4 billion in revenue in 2024, with users spending a record $7.2 billion on the platform. Radvinsky paid himself $1.8 billion in dividends between 2021 and early 2025.

In his early years, Radvinsky ran websites advertising access to “hacked” passwords to porn sites, which generated revenue via referrals and clicks. In 2004 he was sued by Microsoft over alleged spam emails, although the case was ultimately dismissed.

In 2022, OnlyFans was accused of sabotaging social media accounts of adult entertainers working for rival platforms by placing their content in a terrorism database.

More recently, leaked internal documents from the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), a pro-Israel lobbying group, reported by independent investigative news outlet The Lever, Radvinsky and his wife were listed as having pledged $11 million to the organization in 2023 – a sum that would make him a major donor – although he denied making the donation.

Born into a Jewish family in the Ukrainian city of Odessa in 1982, Radvinsky emigrated to the United States as a child.

He bought a majority stake in OnlyFans’ parent company in 2018. The platform gained prominence by hosting explicit content largely restricted on mainstream social media. Its popularity surged during the pandemic, as many adult performers and sex workers moved online in search of alternative income streams.

Slovakia could hike diesel prices for foreign drivers or limit the amount of fuel they can buy to curb fuel tourism, according to local media reports.

Prime Minister Robert Fico announced the plan on Tuesday amid a global oil market squeeze driven by the war in the Middle East and a halt to Russian oil flows through the Druzhba pipeline.

Fico and Economy Minister Denisa Sakova described the situation as critical after talks with Bratislava refinery Slovnaft, citing a 20% shortfall in global markets and increasing difficulty in securing tanker deliveries as buyers in Asia outbid local suppliers.

Fico said representatives from Slovnaft, part of Hungary’s MOL Group, told the government that cheaper diesel in northern districts along the Polish border sparked increased purchases by foreign drivers.

The government is reportedly considering dual pricing with cheaper fuel for Slovak drivers and higher costs for foreigners, requiring vehicle registration documents. Limits on fuel taken outside standard tanks are also under discussion to curb informal exports.

Fico attributed the supply crunch to the US-Israel war against Iran, which has triggered the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The key waterway typically handles 20% of the world’s seaborne crude, tightening global oil markets.

The prime minister also accused Ukrainian leader Vladimir Zelensky of deliberately harming Slovakia’s interests by suspending Russian oil via the Druzhba pipeline. Kiev is preventing vital oil from reaching Hungary and Slovakia through the pipeline, which runs through Ukraine, claiming it was damaged by Russian strikes – which Moscow denies.

EU-level efforts to resolve the dispute have stalled, according to the Slovak economy minister, as Kiev continues to block international inspections and has rejected Czech-led mediation to assess the pipeline’s condition.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said Ukraine has accepted the EU’s offer to repair the Druzhba pipeline, with EU experts arriving in Kiev this week to inspect the damaged section on Wednesday and assess the repairs needed.

Gas prices across the EU are set to rise by at least 100% more than previously forecast, Kremlin envoy Kirill Dmitriev has said, as bloc officials continue to push member states to shun Russian energy.

Dmitriev’s remarks come as the escalating Middle East crisis triggered by the unprovoked US-Israeli attack on Iran has sent global oil and gas prices soaring.

At the same time, the EU has continued to struggle with the consequences of its move to sever energy ties with Russia over the Ukraine conflict, as well as its controversial green energy policies.

“We forecast at least 100% higher [gas prices in the EU] than previously projected, as Europe takes time to inevitably beg for more Russian gas,” Kremlin investment envoy Kirill Dmitriev said on Tuesday on X, commenting on projections by Bloomberg.

On Monday, the news agency cited a report from HSBC as saying that natural gas prices in the region are expected to be 40% higher than previously projected for 2026 and remain elevated through the next year.

Energy markets have faced renewed volatility following the launch of the US-Israeli war on Iran and the ensuing disruption to global shipping through the Strait of Hormuz – a key artery for global supplies of oil and liquified natural gas (LNG). Traffic through the strait has reportedly dropped by 80%. Crude oil and European wholesale gas prices have moved sharply higher, piling further pressure on energy-intensive industries and sparking concerns about the EU’s energy security.

The surge in gas prices projected by HSBC sharply contrasts with US natural gas futures, which have remained largely stable, Bloomberg reported. Ample stockpiles and LNG export terminals operating near full capacity have reportedly insulated the world’s largest gas exporter from global supply shocks.

The latest developments in the energy sector have prompted some EU politicians to step up calls to reconsider sanctions on Russia, after Russian President Vladimir Putin warned that Moscow could halt gas supplies to the bloc ahead of Brussels’ planned 2027 ban.

More than 100,000 Britons are at risk of losing their jobs due to market turmoil in the wake of the US-Israeli attack on Iran, The Telegraph reported on Monday.

Oil prices have jumped to over $100 per barrel amid supply disruptions brought on by the conflict, up from around $70 last month.

James Smith, from investment bank ING, has warned that if the conflict continues, employers will offset higher energy costs by axing their workforce or suspending hiring, according to the newspaper.

“It depends how long energy prices stay high. If we’re in a scenario where the disruption lasts three months or so,” unemployment could “be pushing above 5.5%,” he added.

Currently, 5.2% of the British population is unemployed, a high unseen since the Covid pandemic, according to government data.

He told the outlet that domestic demand in British manufacturing has now “collapsed,” despite the industry seeing some growth since the start of the year.

Mizuho Bank’s Jordan Rochester warned that the UK economy is now in a far weaker position than four years ago, when the EU and UK began to phase out affordable Russian gas and oil over the Ukraine conflict. UK unemployment rates stood at 3.8% that year.

According to a YouGov poll published Monday, more than three quarters of respondents think that the hostilities in the Middle East will have a negative impact on the UK and global economies in the longer term. Some 64% believe that the conflict will hit their household finances.

The US-Israeli war with Iran has made the Strait of Hormuz the world’s most expensive waterway for shipping, as it has triggered a massive surge in war risk insurance premiums, according to Euronews.

Before the US-Israeli war on Iran, the Strait of Hormuz handled roughly 20% of the world’s seaborne crude oil. Now, Iranian retaliatory attacks on tankers, and Western insurers and shipping firms pulling back, have brought maritime traffic to a virtual halt.

Before the crisis, war risk insurance for a Gulf tanker was 0.02-0.05% of its value. Since February 28, premiums have soared to 0.5-1% or more, according to Euronews.

War risk premiums for a single voyage have jumped from roughly $40,000 to between $600,000 and $1.2 million for a typical tanker, the outlet wrote on Monday. At least 16 vessels have been hit since the conflict began, it noted.

The US has pledged naval escorts through the Strait, with US President Donald Trump urging oil-receiving nations to help secure the waterway.

However, even with naval escorts, companies will continue treating the waterway as a high-risk operating environment, Christopher Long, who works for a maritime security company called Neptune P2P Group, told Euronews.

Iran, meanwhile, insists that the Strait of Hormuz remains open for friendly or authorized ships. Talks with Iran are the most “effective way” to restart transit, Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar said on Sunday, citing negotiations between New Delhi and Tehran that allowed two Indian-flagged gas tankers to pass through the strait as an example of diplomatic solutions.

Russia, a major crude oil exporter, is not a participant in the conflict and does not depend on the Strait of Hormuz to bring its oil to market. Its Urals blend reaches India via the Baltic and Black Seas, then through the Suez Canal and Red Sea – completely bypassing the Persian Gulf chokepoint.
While Russia and India have partnered with Iran to develop the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) as an alternative route, its current use for significant crude oil shipments is minimal.

The United States could be one of the biggest beneficiaries of the global rise in energy prices which has resulted from the US-Israeli war against Iran, the Financial Times (FT) has reported, citing estimates provided by the investment bank Jefferies.

Oil prices have already surged past $100 per barrel due to the fallout from the ongoing war in the Middle East. If they remain elevated this year, American companies will receive a $63.4 billion boost from oil production, according to the energy research company Rystad.

Brent crude, the international benchmark, rose by more than 30 percent last Sunday, at one point topping $119 per barrel, as fears grew of a prolonged disruption to global energy supplies.

US President Donald Trump used the opportunity to pivot from a focus on keeping energy prices low to painting high oil prices as a positive. “The United States is the largest Oil Producer in the World, by far, so when oil prices go up, we make a lot of money,” he said in a Truth Social post on Thursday.

According to The Guardian, however, more than 1,000 cargo ships, mainly oil and gas tankers, have been blocked from transiting the strait. If it remains closed until the end of the month, some analysts reckon crude could surge to $150 or even $200 per barrel, The Economist wrote earlier this week.

Rising oil prices put pressure on the US economy, as prices for gasoline and diesel fuel, as well as for many goods and services, have increased in the country, The Wall Street Journal stressed. However, the US, being a major oil producer itself, could provide the economy with protection from the worst consequences, the newspaper noted.

Oil producers in the Gulf region have lost an estimated $15.1 billion in energy revenues since the launch of the US-Israeli strikes on Iran, the Financial Times reported on Friday, citing estimates by analytics firm Kpler.

The US and Israel conducted coordinated strikes on the Islamic Republic in late February, triggering Iranian retaliatory attacks across the region. The escalating crisis effectively shut down the Strait of Hormuz – a critical route that handles roughly one-fifth of the world’s daily oil and gas supply – as Tehran barred ships from non-friendly nations, sending global crude prices soaring nearly 50% to $120 per barrel.

The Strait of Hormuz is estimated to carry around $1.2 billion worth of crude oil, refined products, and liquefied natural gas (LNG) daily, based on average prices and volumes recorded last year. According to Florian Gruenberger of Kpler, as cited by the FT, current flows through the waterway are “negligible” compared with prewar levels.

Among the halted shipments, crude oil reportedly represents the largest share, accounting for 71% of the total value. At least $10.7 billion worth of crude, refined oil products, and LNG cargoes remain stranded inside the maritime route, according to Kpler.

Gulf oil producers, including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, and Bahrain, have deferred $13.3 billion in sales and tax revenue due to disruptions in oil shipments, according to UK-based consultancy Wood Mackenzie, as cited by the FT.

On Friday, US President Donald Trump told Fox News that American forces would escort vessels through the Strait of Hormuz if necessary. Last week, Trump urged tanker crews sailing through the vital waterway to “show some guts.”

The US has eased sanctions to allow countries to purchase Russian oil and petroleum products already loaded on vessels at sea, according to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. The move comes as escalating Middle East tensions triggered by the US-Israeli war on Iran have sent global oil prices soaring.

The US and Israel launched coordinated strikes on Iran on February 28, prompting Iranian retaliatory attacks across the region. The crisis has led to the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz – which carries roughly one-fifth of the world’s daily oil supply – as Iran effectively blocks transit for ships from non-friendly nations, sending oil prices surging nearly 50% to almost $120 per barrel.

“To increase the global reach of existing supply, US Treasury is providing a temporary authorization to permit countries to purchase Russian oil currently stranded at sea,” Bessent said on Thursday in a post on X, stating that the move would stabilize energy markets and curb oil prices.

The waiver relates to exports of Russian oil loaded onto vessels prior to March 12 and is set to last 30 days.

Earlier in the day, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright had stated that broader restrictions on Russian oil would not be lifted, stressing that Washington was not planning to change its sanctions policy toward Moscow.

Last week, Bessent claimed the US had given India “permission” to buy Russian crude “to ease the temporary gap of oil around the world,” having announced plans to “unsanction other Russian oil” to further boost supply.

India, which alongside China emerged as a key buyer of Russian crude after sanctions were imposed following the escalation of the Ukraine conflict in 2022, has never confirmed it would adhere to the restrictions, although the US has claimed otherwise.

Moscow likewise said it had no information suggesting that India has put Russian crude imports on hold. The Kremlin has condemned the US-Israeli strikes on Iran as a “premeditated and unprovoked act of aggression” with no justification.

German luxury carmaker Porsche AG has reported a sharp drop in operating profits following a costly pivot away from its long-term EV strategy amid mounting challenges facing the EU’s auto sector.

The automaker booked extraordinary expenses totaling about €3.9 billion ($4.5 billion) in 2025, which on paper slashed its group operating profits by nearly 93%, from €5.6 billion to just €413 million, according to the company’s investor conference presentation released on Wednesday. Battery-related activities cost roughly €700 million, with US tariffs taking a similar toll.

Porsche – until recently the world’s most profitable car company by margin – had been developing a new all-electric vehicle platform intended to underpin its models over the next decade. After years of investment, the company has now abandoned the project, returning to combustion-engine models and plug-in hybrids.

“The global challenges and the company’s realignment impacted earnings in 2025,” Chief Financial Officer Jochen Breckner said, adding that the “recalibration measures will continue to have one-off effects on earnings in the high three-digit million euros range.”

The damage has rippled through parent company Volkswagen Group, which reported a sharp drop in net profit. It announced plans to cut 50,000 jobs in Germany by 2030, citing rising energy costs and trade pressures. Porsche faces around 3,900 job cuts.

Germany’s automotive sector has been grappling with a growing number of challenges, including surging energy costs, weaker demand, intensifying competition from Chinese manufacturers, and trade tensions with Washington.

The EU energy crisis – sparked by the bloc’s drastic reduction of Russian oil and gas imports following the escalation of the Ukraine conflict in 2022 – has further hurt manufacturers. Energy markets have also been impacted by the US-Israeli bombing of Iran and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a key artery for global oil and LNG shipments.

The US government has borrowed some $1 trillion in the five months since October, adding to the ballooning federal deficit, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has reported.

The estimates have come amid media reports claiming that the US military burned through $5.6 billion worth of munitions during the first two days of its assault on Iran.

On Monday, the CBO released its monthly budget review, according to which the US government’s debt grew by $308 billion in February alone. Among the factors contributing to the trend are higher interest payments to service public debt, as well as increased government spending, including by the US Department of War.

In just five months, the Treasury forked out a total of $433 billion to service public debt, which is now nearing $38.9 trillion.

Maya MacGuineas, president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB), a bipartisan fiscal watchdog, has warned that “this cannot be sustainable.” She called on policymakers to reduce deficits, proposing a 3% deficit-to-GDP ratio as an initial target.

Meanwhile, on Tuesday, the Washington Post, citing anonymous officials, reported that the US military fired $5.6 billion worth of munitions during the first two days of its strikes on Iran alone. According to the newspaper, the administration of President Donald Trump is expected to send Congress a supplemental defense budget request in the coming days, which could reportedly run as high as $50 billion.

Democratic lawmakers have increasingly voiced concerns over an apparent lack of clear objectives in Trump’s military campaign against Iran as the president has been sending out mixed messages on the matter.

Last week, Politico claimed that the Pentagon was expecting the conflict to last for at least another 100 days, or even through September, a stark contrast to Trump’s original four-week timeline.

Japanese auto parts makers have entered into talks with Russian aluminum giant Rusal as disruptions from the escalating Middle East conflict squeeze supplies, Bloomberg has reported, citing sources familiar with the matter.

Although Rusal’s aluminum is not subject to Western sanctions, Japanese firms voluntarily halted purchases in 2022 after the escalation of the Ukraine conflict, contracting Gulf producers instead.

Negotiations to buy primary foundry alloy, used in automotive parts such as wheels, engine blocks, and cylinder heads, have been underway for about a week, the outlet said on Tuesday, noting that some deals could be finalized soon.

“We cannot comment officially,” a Rusal representative told Forbes Russia.

Over the past four years, Rusal has shifted its focus to Asia as European clients, once responsible for about half of its demand, scaled back purchases. EU quotas on Russian aluminum, introduced in 2025, further reduced its sales to the bloc. South Korea is among the destinations taking in Russian aluminum, with annual volumes this year estimated at just under 500,000 tons. 

The war, started by US-Israeli strikes on Iran in late February, has disrupted shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, affecting energy and bulk materials. Aluminium Bahrain has declared a force majeure, while Emirates Global Aluminium has delayed some shipments. Both companies are key exporters of the product to Japan and South Korea.

Some suppliers to Japan have suspended shipments to sell at higher prices. Last week, Rio Tinto paused negotiations with Japanese buyers for second-quarter primary aluminum and withdrew an initial $250 per ton premium offer.

Aluminum prices hit a nearly four‑year high in March, with LME three‑month futures trading around $3,426.50 a ton on Wednesday amid supply concerns tied to Middle East disruptions.

Russia has added 14 new dollar billionaires in the past year, seven of whom made their fortunes in agriculture and food production, according to the 2026 Forbes World’s Billionaires List.

The annual ranking, published on Tuesday, shows a record 155 Russian nationals on the list despite sweeping Western sanctions imposed since the escalation of the Ukraine conflict in 2022. Their combined wealth stands at $696.5 billion, another all-time high.

But the composition of Russia’s ultra-rich is shifting. Traditional fortunes in energy and metals, long the backbone of Russian wealth, now share space with a rising class of ‘agro-billionaires’ who have capitalized on Russia’s growing self-sufficiency in food and expanded exports to markets in Asia, Africa, and the Middle East.

Among the newcomers from the food industry is Aleksandr Tkachev, worth $1.8 billion, co-founder and controlling shareholder of Agrocomplex, one of Russia’s largest food and agriculture producers. Tkachev served as Russia’s agriculture minister from 2015 to 2018. Another newcomer is Vadim Vikulov, worth $1.5 billion, who controls Aston, a Russian agricultural exporter and major player in grain and vegetable oil.

The other new additions to the 2026 list come from fertilizer and coal businesses, energy sector, pharmaceutical industry, and real estate.

The list’s top ranks remain dominated by traditional industrialists. Alexey Mordashov, the steel and gold magnate, leads Russian billionaires for the first time with $37 billion, followed by Vladimir Potanin of Norilsk Nickel with $29.7 billion and Vagit Alekperov, the former Lukoil chief, with $29.5 billion.

The EU’s largest automaker, Volkswagen (VW), has announced that it will cut about 50,000 jobs in Germany, citing plunging profits, soaring energy costs and mounting trade pressures. 

In its annual report on Tuesday, VW said that net income nearly halved in 2025, falling to €6.9 billion (over $8 billion), its weakest result since the 2016 diesel scandal, while revenues slipped to just under €322 billion.

VW will “systematically reduce our costs” in the coming years, executives said, confirming that tens of thousands of positions will be slashed across the group’s German operations by 2030 on top of previously announced headcount reductions. In 2024, the company reached a deal with unions to avoid involuntary redundancies and plant closures at production sites in Germany.

“The year 2025 was characterized by geopolitical tensions, tariffs, and intense competition,” VW’s chief financial officer Arno Antlitz said, adding that 50,000 jobs would be cut by 2030 and that further cost-cutting measures could follow in order to make the automaker more competitive.

Germany’s automotive sector has been struggling amid surging energy prices, sluggish demand in Europe, rising competition from Chinese manufacturers, US tariffs, and a slower than expected transition to electric vehicles. Following the escalation of the Ukraine conflict in 2022, the EU drastically reduced imports of Russian oil and gas, forcing member states to switch to more expensive alternatives. The resulting energy crisis has fueled concerns about the health of the bloc’s largest manufacturing economy and the risk of a further downturn.

The situation has prompted some EU politicians to step up calls to reconsider Russia sanctions after President Vladimir Putin warned that Moscow could halt gas supplies ahead of a Brussels’ planned 2027 ban.

The European Commission is reportedly discussing possible emergency measures to shield manufacturers from surging electricity costs, including a review of national energy taxes, grid charges and carbon-pricing mechanisms.

China has signaled a major push to secure more natural gas from Russia, referencing two new pipelines in the draft of its latest five-year plan. The move comes as conflict in the Middle East threatens LNG shipments transiting the Strait of Hormuz, a key energy chokepoint.

The draft version of China’s development blueprint for 2026–2030, submitted to the National People’s Congress last week, notes that Beijing would “advance preparatory work” on the “central route of the China-Russia natural gas pipeline,” the South China Morning Post (SCMP) reported on Monday.

The draft did not name the specific project, but market observers interpreted the comments as referring to the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline, and suggested that, given the developments in the Middle East, its construction could be accelerated.

Russia already delivers natural gas to China via the Power of Siberia pipeline, which began operations in 2019 and reached full operational capacity in December 2024. Moscow has also become Beijing’s second-largest source of LNG, behind Qatar.

Middle Eastern supplies have been disrupted over the past week by the escalating conflict triggered by US-Israeli strikes on Iran. China sources around 18% of its LNG from Qatar and up to 5% from the UAE, with cargoes typically routed through the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway now largely paralyzed by the fighting.

The draft also mentions the “China-Russia Far East Natural Gas Pipeline,” according to Tencent News. Built by Russia’s Gazprom and China’s CNPC, the pipeline runs from the town of Dalnerechensk, some five kilometers from the Chinese border, and has an annual capacity of 12 billion cubic meters. It is fully constructed and is set to go operational in January 2027.

Despite sweeping Western restrictions, China has deepened energy trade with Russia. Beijing and Moscow declared a “no-limits” partnership in 2022. In a phone call with Xi Jinping last month, Putin highlighted bilateral trade exceeding $200 billion annually and Russia’s role as a leading energy supplier to China. Xi, for his part, pledged to deepen energy cooperation at the China-Russia Energy Business Forum in Beijing in November.

German industries are showing no signs of recovery as of early 2026, with production output declining even before the US and Israel launched their attack on Iran, according to the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis).

The nation’s industrial output fell by 0.5% in January in comparison to December, according to a report published on Monday. The year-on-year decline was even bigger at 1.2%, the data shows.

The decline particularly affected the energy-intensive industrial branches, Destatis said. The agency named metal product fabrication, pharmaceutics, and computer, electronic, and optical product manufacturing among the most affected fields, where the month-on-month drop in output was 7-12%.

High energy prices have been cited by German media and officials as a key factor behind the economic slowdown that has affected the EU’s largest economy in recent years.

Germany, which had relied on Russia for 55% of its natural gas, took a heavy blow after the country took part in the Western sanctions on Russia following the escalation of the Ukraine conflict in 2022.

Russian oil giant Rosneft’s operations also accounted for around 12% of the nation’s total oil-processing capacity, according to Bloomberg.

The Federal Employment Agency warned in December about an unemployment crisis linked to the struggling economy. Its head, Andrea Nahles, said even well-qualified workers are no longer fully shielded from unemployment. In January, the German Chamber of Commerce and Industry named high energy costs as one of the key factors behind what it called an alarmingly high number of bankruptcies.

Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto has urged the EU to lift its ban on Russian oil and gas imports, as escalating Middle East tensions and attacks involving Iran have sent global oil prices soaring.

The latest US-Israeli attacks against Iran have sharply increased risks for vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, the route for around 20% of global oil. Traffic has reportedly dropped by 80% after several tankers were hit, pushing crude above $100 and prompting expectations of emergency energy measures from the EU and other major economies.

“The EU should immediately lift its ban on Russian oil and gas imports,” Szijjarto said on Monday in a post on X. “With the war in the Middle East escalating and the Strait of Hormuz closed, a major share of global energy supply is now at risk.”

“If Brussels keeps the sanctions in place, it will cause serious harm to European people and the European economy,” he added, arguing that “the focus should be on protecting the interests of Europeans, not ideology.”

Earlier in the day, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban said he had written to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, urging the EU to lift the sanctions on Russian energy, and warning that the “oil blockade” by Ukrainian leader Vladimir Zelensky threatens Hungary, Slovakia, and the entire EU.

Kiev halted Russian oil supplies to Hungary and Slovakia via the Druzhba pipeline, saying it was damaged by Russian strikes – a claim that Moscow rejects. Budapest and Bratislava accuse Ukraine of blackmail and say Brussels has sided with Kiev over the two EU states.

On Sunday, Russian President Vladimir Putin said EU-Ukraine relations can be described as “the tail wagging the dog,” stressing that Kiev’s “dangerous and aggressive” stance could further undermine the energy security of EU member states.

The United States has issued a 30-day waiver on Russian oil and petroleum products currently at sea, in the face of a developing global energy crisis spurred by the Iran war initiated by the US and Israel.

Several countries have already announced plans to purchase Russian crude following the move by Washington.

The US and Israel launched joint air strikes on Iran late last month, triggering retaliatory attacks targeting American military facilities across the Middle East. The escalation has disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital energy chokepoint through which about one-fifth of global oil and LNG supplies pass.

Oil prices have surged, as the strait has remained effectively closed for most through-traffic. Brent crude has climbed about 30% to above $100 per barrel.

On Thursday, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced that Washington would temporarily lift restrictions on purchases of Russian crude that was loaded onto vessels before March 12. The waiver, valid until April 11, will affect an estimated 100-124 million barrels of oil, according to media reports.

Thailand, which currently imports 50% of its oil from the Persian Gulf, described the sanctions reprieve as “good news” and said it would begin talking to Moscow in an effort to diversify energy sources.

Japan, which imported 94% of its oil from the Middle East last year, also said it would consider buying from Russia after the announcement.

The Kremlin welcomed the US move but warned that it would not be enough to stabilize the market. Spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the situation “risks turning into a broader crisis in the global energy sector,” arguing that “there is no way for the market to stabilize without significant volumes of Russian oil.” 

According to Axios, the waiver was announced despite objections from key European allies. During a virtual G7 leaders’ call on Wednesday, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, and French President Emmanuel Macron reportedly urged US President Donald Trump not to ease sanctions.

Merz on Friday blasted the decision as “wrong,” insisting that “there is currently a problem with prices, but not with supply.” The UK has also ruled out following Washington’s lead, with Energy Minister Michael Shanks telling the BBC that London will not ease its own restrictions. Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store likewise said the sanctions should not be relaxed.

India and China became the main buyers of Russian crude after the US and EU imposed sanctions on Moscow over the escalation of the Ukraine conflict in 2022.

Washington has long urged New Delhi to halt the imports. US Ambassador to India Sergio Gor said last month that the White House was using trade talks to push the country to buy Venezuelan oil instead.

US President Donald Trump claimed that New Delhi “agreed to stop” deliveries from Moscow. India, however, never confirmed such a commitment.

Moscow likewise said it had no information suggesting that India had put Russian crude imports on hold. The Kremlin has condemned the US-Israeli strikes on Iran as a “premeditated and unprovoked act of aggression” with no justification.

Oil prices hit a two-and-a-half year high on Friday as the escalating US-Israeli war against Iran disrupts energy supplies from the Middle East to global markets.

Global benchmark Brent crude futures were up over 8% to over $92 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose over 11% to over $90, both highest since September 2023.

Commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway between Iran and Oman that carries about one-fifth of the world’s oil exports, has come to a near-complete halt, according to Bloomberg.

Iraq, the region’s second-largest producer, has had to cut output due to an inability to export. Kuwait has reportedly begun cutting production at some oil fields after running out of storage. Iran’s own oil exports have effectively ceased.

Goldman Sachs warned oil could top $100 a barrel if the disruption continues. Qatar’s energy minister warned that oil could hit $150.

Meanwhile, the US has granted India, a leading crude importer, a 30-day waiver to purchase Russian oil. The move is aimed at ensuring stability in the global oil market, according to US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.

Several EU politicians have stepped up calls to roll back Russia sanctions. In Germany, Sahra Wagenknecht, leader of the BSW party, has called for resuming imports of Russian oil to ease prices, while Alice Weidel, co-chair of the AfD, has urged an end to a one-sided reliance on the US and the Middle East for LNG.

EU politicians are stepping up calls to roll back Russia sanctions after President Vladimir Putin warned that Moscow could halt gas supplies ahead of a planned 2027 ban. It has raised concerns over the bloc’s energy security amid the escalating conflict in the Middle East.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, and Italian Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini have repeatedly condemned the sanctions, saying they hurt the EU’s economy.

In Germany, Sahra Wagenknecht, leader of the BSW party, has called for resuming imports of Russian oil to ease prices, while Alice Weidel, co-chair of the AfD, has urged an end to a one-sided reliance on the US and the Middle East for LNG.

Florian Philippot, the leader of France’s Patriots party shared a video of Putin’s remarks on X on Thursday. The French politician blasted the bloc’s Russia sanctions as “idiotic” and “ruinous” for Europeans and insisted they amount to collective self-harm.

European gas prices hit a three-year high this week after the US-Israeli campaign against Iran and Tehran’s retaliatory strikes across the Middle East disrupted crude and LNG shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime choke point. This caused Qatar, the world’s second-largest LNG exporter, to halt production.

« Peut-être serait-il plus avantageux pour nous d’arrêter la livraison du marché européen dès maintenant ! » (cf vidéo ⤵️)

En pleine crise énergétique liée à la guerre en Iran, Poutine piège l’UE en évoquant un arrêt immédiat des livraisons de gaz avant même que l’UE dégaine !… pic.twitter.com/ZdE8Zk8FDJ

— Florian Philippot (@f_philippot) March 5, 2026

The EU gets between 5% and 15% of its total gas supplies from Middle Eastern sources, primarily Qatar. The US is currently the bloc’s dominant LNG supplier with a 60% share.

Last month, the EU agreed to ban all gas imports from Russia, once the bloc’s largest supplier, by late 2027. The measure was designed to be approved by a “reinforced majority” of countries using trade and energy laws, rather than as a sanctions measure requiring unanimous approval. It came despite opposition from Hungary and Slovakia.

The US will exempt the German subsidiary of Russia’s state-owned oil giant Rosneft from sanctions indefinitely, Bloomberg has reported, citing sources.

The arrangement, expected to be officially announced on Friday, would ensure continuing refining operations in Germany as the escalating Middle East conflict has triggered fears of disruptions to oil and gas supplies, the outlet wrote on Wednesday.

Rosneft Deutschland holds stakes in three German refineries that have been under state administration, known as a trusteeship, since the escalation of the Ukraine conflict in 2022 and ensuing sanctions. The facilities account for roughly 13% of the EU country’s refining capacity.

Trusteeship means that while Rosneft maintains ownership, the German subsidiaries are effectively “decoupled” from the parent company’s sanctioned status and are able to function.

The management of the largest refinery, PCK Schwedt, which supplies roughly 90% of the fuel to the city of Berlin, reportedly sent a private letter to the German government in January warning that the sanctions were “already choking day-to-day operations” and threatening to cause fuel shortages for the capital.

The indefinite exemption expected this week would provide the legal certainty that banks, insurers, and suppliers will deal with Rosneft Deutschland.

The missiles are again flying and a thick fog of war has descended over the Middle East. US President Donald Trump has said it might take four to five weeks or longer to achieve America’s objectives, whatever those are. During a hot war, that’s an eternity in the world of mercurial financial markets. 

So far, however, markets have been remarkably sanguine, perhaps, as the excellent Yves Smith posits, because “bigotry and Western narrative control were able to shore up the idea that this would be a short conflict and that Iran would return to the negotiating table after the US broke its legs, or better yet fall quickly into civil unrest, making regime change or balkanization possible.”

Energy markets are the first port of call

Will the relative resilience of markets last? Everyone is of course watching the Strait of Hormuz, and more generally, oil prices. In these types of crises, it’s the oil price that other asset classes take their cues from. 

Iran has threatened any vessel that passes through, while Trump has offered to insure said vessels “at a reasonable price” with a US Navy escort to boot. Oil prices have drifted higher but the movements have so far been disciplined – much more so than many expected. A long disruption is not being priced in. It certainly helps that the US is the largest crude producer in the world and (usually) the third largest exporter. This means that any blockade chokes Asia and Europe first, whereas America has a buffer – one, I might add, it didn’t have in previous conflagrations. 

War is always disruptive, and when that war is in the Middle East, energy markets come into sharp focus. We have seen this on many occasions. It is indeed an acute pressure point for the US – and the world – and has been for decades. Right now, markets are basically trading headline to headline. But even in these head-swirling times, it pays to step back from the noise and flashing headlines and look at things a little more structurally. 

The cost of financialization 

One of the defining features of fading hegemons is that they often harbor fatal weaknesses that can be concealed for a long time. In the case of the US, the erosion of industrial capacity and related financialization of the economy may prove to be just that weakness. The former long ago caused the US to become overly reliant on pricey, high-tech weapons at the expense of the quantity needed for a protracted engagement – not to mention the dependency on supply chains from China for the defense industry. 

Trump claims to have nearly “unlimited” ammunition stocks thanks to cutting Ukraine off. But many believe that if high-intensity strikes go on much longer, US stocks of certain critical missiles will start to run low. The US reportedly used about five years’ worth of Tomahawk missile production in the first three days of the war, and Patriot interceptors are known to be running low. It seems to be a race as to whether Iranian missile launchers can be destroyed faster than the American stockpile of interceptors depletes.

But the financial side is no less important, even apart from shock moves in oil prices. As the US economy de-industrialized, it became increasingly financialized. This has many far-ranging implications, but one of them is that a large portion of national income is now tied to financial asset prices. A drop in asset prices thus reverberates far and wide and triggers numerous knock-on effects. An example of this is that even the US tax base is highly dependent on asset prices. 

Notice the very troubling negative feedback loop: higher interest rates suppress asset prices, thus leading to a lower tax intake by the government, while also entailing a higher debt-servicing expense. So a drop in asset prices forces the government to spend more to service its debt while at that exact moment decreasing the amount it collects in taxes. The result? More Treasury issuance, of course, and at higher interest rates. The moral of the story here is that longer-term the US cannot fiscally survive a massive decrease in financial asset prices. 

Also keep in mind that roughly half of American households now have direct exposure to equity markets through retirement accounts, mutual funds, or brokerage holdings. In previous eras, the health of the stock market was largely the concern of Wall Street. Today, it is entangled with the security of the middle class. 

This all might seem distant and abstract in the midst of a war. Next year’s tax receipts or the state of Americans’ 401(k) plans are the last thing on anybody’s mind in Washington today. But these are real structural constraints that have to be reckoned with. So far stock markets have only mildly drifted lower, but with no panic selling. If the selling picks up, watch how quickly it becomes a major headline. 

Even more sensitive than stocks is the US Treasury (UST) market, which is the true plumbing of the financial system. Higher UST yields tighten financial conditions everywhere, all at once. In a heavily indebted and leveraged system such as the US, rapid moves in this market are extremely dangerous. This is where the constraints start to be measured in hours. A very telling – albeit underreported – instance of this tremendous sensitivity to Treasury market dysfunction came last year. 

On April 2, Trump introduced his so-called Liberation Day tariffs, slapping an across-the-board 10% tariff on all imported foreign goods and larger “reciprocal tariffs” on the imports of dozens of countries that Trump claimed had “cheated” the US. 

“This is one of the most important days, in my opinion, in American history,” Trump proclaimed with his usual bluster in a speech on the White House lawn announcing the measures. The world watched with a mix of incredulousness, awe, and dread. It was a grand gesture, a reassertion of US power. 

Stock markets plunged immediately but Trump and his team weren’t deterred. On Sunday evening, April 6, Trump talked tough, saying “I don’t want anything to go down, but sometimes you have to take medicine to fix something.”

Alas, the medicine would prove too bitter. At first, the big drop in stocks pushed investors scurrying into bonds and UST yields proceeded to actually fall (meaning prices rose) and reached 3.96% on Friday, April 4. So far, so good.

On Monday, however, UST yields engineered a U-turn and started moving higher as the true implications of the radical tariffs started to dawn. The following day saw more of the same. By Tuesday afternoon, the 10y yield was approaching 4.30%. On Wednesday, the very day the tariffs were supposed to take effect, the 10y added another 10 basis points to 4.40%, putting the three-day gain at around 50 basis points. 

Indeed, nothing makes regulators and politicians more nervous than dysfunction in the UST market, which can get out of control very quickly and suddenly cause markets to seize up. The US has shown repeatedly that it will intervene forcefully at the mere sight of UST market dysfunction. This is truly one of the Achilles’ heels of the US. 

Where we are headed

There has so far been no sign of disorderly UST activity, but that doesn’t mean things are all clear. During times of chaos and uncertainty in the world, the US usually sees an inflow of money seeking a safe haven. Quite perversely, this happens even when the US is the cause of the trouble. To some extent, this has held true now: the dollar rallied sharply following the strikes on Iran.

Nevertheless, UST yields have been creeping higher on fears of the inflationary effect of a more protracted war. Investors are thus caught between the normal safe-haven appeal of the dollar and fears of a surge in inflation that would hammer USTs (i.e. drive yields higher, prices lower). 

The US has long benefitted from the perception that it can blot out the sun with planes and missiles. Deterrence, once credibly established, can be maintained with smoke and mirrors – until, that is, somebody is willing to pay to see your cards. Until now, nobody has really called Washington’s bluff, although the Ukraine war has provided strong hints of this soft underbelly. Whether this will be the conflict that lays bare the deep fundamental weakness remains to be seen, but if markets start to think it is, things will move very quickly.  

The US and Israel are certainly acting with impunity, and there no longer seem to be any institutional checks on the ambitions of those prosecuting this war. But in a strange way, markets could come to be a surrogate institutional check. A country that can’t withstand a 50 basis-point move in its bond yields is by definition restricted.

The precariously balanced edifice of American power depends on a tenuous financial equilibrium existing within a highly indebted and financialized economy. War is inherently destabilizing. The longer this goes on, the more that equilibrium will be tested. 

The conflict in the Middle East may force the EU to scrap its plans to abandon Russian natural gas next year, Norway’s energy minister, Terje Aasland, has reportedly suggested.

European gas prices have jumped 75% this week hitting a three-year high, according to trading data. The spike comes in light of the US-Israeli campaign against Iran and Tehran’s retaliatory strikes across the Middle East.

The attacks forced tankers carrying liquefied natural gas (LNG) to largely stop transiting the Strait of Hormuz and caused the world’s second-largest LNG exporter Qatar to halt production on Monday.

“With the geopolitical situation we see now, I believe the debate [about resuming Russian gas imports] will be revived,” Aasland said during a press conference in Oslo on Tuesday, as cited by Reuters.

He noted that Norway, the EU’s largest supplier of pipeline gas, is already “producing at full capacity.” There’s no additional output to be found, he stated, as cited by Bloomberg.

Last month, the EU agreed to ban all gas imports from Russia, once the bloc’s largest supplier, by late 2027. The measure was designed to be approved by a “reinforced majority” of countries using trade and energy laws, rather than as a sanctions measure requiring unanimous approval.

The bloc has already faced repeated jumps in energy costs since it scaled back Russian oil and gas imports following the escalation of the Ukraine conflict in 2022. Landlocked members Hungary and Slovakia have contested the measure, threatening to challenge the ban in court.

Goldman Sachs estimates that a month-long halt to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz could send European gas prices up by as much as 130% from current levels, putting renewed pressure on households and industry.

US President Donald Trump has indicated that military operations against Iran could continue for several weeks.

Gas markets around the world were rattled on Monday, with benchmark European natural gas prices rising sharply and broader energy markets on edge after Middle East tensions increased the risk to supplies via the critical Strait of Hormuz.

European benchmark gas futures surged by around 50% – their biggest single day move since March 2022 – after LNG tankers largely stopped transiting the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman that carries about a fifth of global oil and gas shipments, over the weekend.

The spike was compounded by a drone strike on QatarEnergy’s major LNG complex at Ras Laffan, which forced production to be halted.

Crude markets also rallied, with Brent futures climbing to multi-month highs as the escalation further constrained energy flows from the region.

Across the Gulf, other energy sites have also been hit or temporarily shut, with producers suspending parts of their operations as a precaution. Saudi Arabia has reportedly paused activity at its Ras Tanura refinery following the attacks. With pipeline alternatives limited and shipping routes through the area stalling, traders are now pricing in the risk that supply lines could remain disrupted for an extended period.

⚠️BREAKING:

*EUROPEAN GAS PRICES SOAR 50% ON QATAR ENERGY HALT pic.twitter.com/VTmErE26Xd

— Investing.com (@Investingcom) March 2, 2026

Analysts warn that the turmoil could amount to the most serious shock to gas markets since the 2022 energy crisis. The EU is seen as particularly exposed. The bloc has already faced repeated jumps in energy costs since it scaled back Russian oil and gas imports following the escalation of the Ukraine conflict. Moving away from relatively cheap Russian pipeline gas has forced the bloc to lean more heavily on LNG deliveries, especially from the US. Now, with the heating season ending but storage sites less full than usual, the region requires substantial LNG imports over the summer to rebuild inventories ahead of next winter.

The rally comes as US President Donald Trump has indicated that military operations against Iran could continue for several weeks, while a number of major maritime insurers are preparing to stop covering war risks for ships entering the Persian Gulf.

Analysts, including Goldman Sachs, estimate that a month‑long halt to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz could send European gas prices up by as much as 130% from current levels, putting renewed pressure on households and industry.

Kirill Dmitriev, Russia’s presidential envoy and head of the country’s sovereign wealth fund, argued that the latest price jump highlights the cost of Europe’s decision to move away from Russian fuel. In a social‑media post, he said EU gas prices “could more than double soon” and claimed that the bloc’s “strategic blunder of avoiding cheap and reliable Russian gas is backfiring.”

Global oil prices jumped by as much as 13% on Monday after intense US-Israeli strikes on Iran triggered major concerns about global economic disruption. Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has already been heavily impacted as attacks continue across the Middle East.

The Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman, carries about 20% of global oil and gas supplies. Although Iranian authorities say it remains open to tankers, news reports indicate shipping is largely paused due to strike risks.

Brent crude jumped to $82 per barrel on the ICE exchange on Monday, marking a 14-month high amid the latest developments surrounding the passage, but has since retreated to around $79.5.

The UK Maritime Trade Operations Centre (UKMTO) said on Sunday that two ships were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz, while Oman’s Maritime Security Center reported a US-sanctioned tanker was struck off its coast earlier in the day.

Reuters reported on Sunday that at least 150 tankers, including crude and LNG vessels, were anchored in Gulf waters outside the Strait of Hormuz, with dozens more stationary beyond the chokepoint. The Financial Times, citing brokers, said insurers warned shipowners they would cancel policies and raise coverage costs for vessels transiting the Gulf and the Strait.

Military strikes launched by the US and Israel against Iran on Saturday morning have showed no sign of lessening. US President Donald Trump suggested on Sunday that the conflict could last for “four to five weeks,” stating that attacks will continue until American objectives are met.

The intense attacks have killed Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other top officials, including the head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps. Tehran has responded with airstrikes against Israel and several Gulf states hosting US military assets.

In a further sign of regional escalation, Hezbollah has entered the fray by launching a series of cross-border attacks against Israeli military positions, prompting retaliatory airstrikes targeting the Lebanese armed group’s infrastructure and command sites.

ChatGPT owner OpenAI has signed a deal with the Pentagon for its AI tools to be used in the military’s classified systems, CEO Sam Altman announced on Friday. The agreement reportedly includes guardrails similar to those that rival Anthropic had previously requested.

The announcement came hours after US President Donald Trump ordered federal agencies to halt the use of AI systems developed by Anthropic, citing concerns over military deployment and the company’s attempts to impose conditions on the Pentagon.

Altman highlighted that the Pentagon had “displayed a deep respect for safety and a desire to partner to achieve the best possible outcome.” He added that two core safety principles – prohibitions on domestic mass surveillance and human responsibility for the use of force, including autonomous weapon systems – are reflected in the agreement. The company will also deploy technical safeguards and full-disk encryption to ensure AI models function securely, but only on cloud networks, he added.

The OpenAI CEO called on the Pentagon to extend these terms to all AI companies, urging Washington to move away from taking legal action.

Pentagon officials saw this as an attempt by the company to dictate terms beyond a normal business partnership. Deputy Defense Secretary Emil Michael criticized Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei for trying to exert undue control over military operations, escalating tensions Bloomberg reported earlier this week.

After banning government agencies from using Anthropic’s AI developments for six months, Trump accused the company of trying to pressure the Pentagon into complying with its conditions and of putting national security at risk.

“We don’t need them, we don’t want them, and we will no longer deal with them,” he wrote on Truth Social.

Facebook owner Meta has signed a multibillion-dollar agreement to rent artificial intelligence chips from Google to support the development of new AI models, tech news outlet The Information reported on Thursday, citing a person involved in the talks.

Big Tech firms are facing increasing regulatory pressure amid massive investments in AI. The US authorities have pushed for safeguards tied to national security and responsible deployment of the technology. At the same time, European regulators are tightening rules on transparency, safety, and market dominance, encouraging firms to rely more on partnerships and shared infrastructure.

In addition to the chip-rental arrangement, The Information said Meta is also in discussions to directly purchase Google’s Tensor Processing Units (TPUs) for its own data centers, potentially beginning next year, although the outcome of the talks remains uncertain.

Meta has already pursued multiple chip and infrastructure agreements amid growing AI ambitions. Earlier this year, the California-based company secured major AI chip agreements with semiconductor maker AMD and expanded its use of Nvidia hardware to diversify access to advanced processors and reduce dependence on a single supplier.

Similar collaborations have emerged across the sector. Last year, Microsoft deepened cooperation with cloud and chip providers Anthropic and Nvidia to deepen its role in building AI infrastructure with multiple partners. At the same time, Amazon Web Services expanded compute agreements with AI developers to provide access to large Graphics Processing Unit clusters.

Governments meanwhile are advancing formal oversight frameworks. The US has introduced executive measures requiring safety testing and reporting for advanced AI systems. The EU has adopted sweeping legislation imposing risk-based rules and compliance obligations on AI developers – steps that analysts say are reshaping how Big Tech builds and deploys AI technologies.

US national debt will surge to 140% of GDP within five years, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned, urging Washington to slash its fiscal deficit to rein in outsized trade and current account gaps.  

The US national debt has swelled to more than $38 trillion, and the fiscal shortfall is deepening, data shows. It represents a $2.25 trillion increase over the past year, with debt projected to hit $39 trillion by April. The federal budget deficit rose from roughly $1.4 trillion in fiscal year 2022 to about $1.8 trillion last year, according to the IMF’s latest figures.  

Speaking to reporters on Wednesday after the fund’s annual review of American economic policies, IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva said that “the current account deficit is too big, to make it very simple for the audience.” She said that the problem is recognized by the US administration.  

It also urged the US to work constructively with its partners “to address concerns over unfair trade practices and agree on a coordinated reduction in trade restrictions and industrial policy distortions that have negative cross-border effects.”   

“Where trade and investment measures (including tariffs and export controls) are put in place for national security reasons, such policies should be applied narrowly,” the IMF said.  

US economic growth will remain resilient at 2.4% in 2026, while inflation will not return to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target until early 2027 amid uncertainty over the inflation and growth outlook, data shows.  

The IMF’s report was drafted before the Supreme Court struck down many of US President Donald Trump’s tariffs and it said it would assess the ruling’s impact.   

US public debt, issued to cover budget deficits and fund programs like healthcare, defense, and infrastructure, is widely seen as a safe global asset. Its interest rates set benchmarks for other markets and help attract foreign capital. But rising debt can push up borrowing costs and inflation, threatening economic stability at home and abroad.

US President Donald Trump has branded former White House staffer and Netflix board member Susan Rice “racist” over her reported threats to companies that support the president. He has demanded the streaming service fire her “immediately.”

Rice, who is black and a vocal Trump critic, served in senior roles under three Democratic administrations, including as national security advisor and UN ambassador under Obama. She rejoined Netflix’s board in 2023 after working for the Biden administration.

Trump’s outburst followed a post by right-wing influencer Laura Loomer highlighting Rice’s remarks on a podcast last week that warned “entities” that “take a knee” to Trump to expect to be “held accountable” if Democrats return to power.

“Netflix should fire racist, Trump Deranged Susan Rice, immediately, or pay the consequences,” Trump responded on Truth Social on Sunday, calling Rice a “political hack” with “no talent or skills.”

Netflix @netflix Board Member Susan Rice @AmbassadorRice says corporations who took a "knee to Trump" will face an "accountability agenda" from elected Democrats if they win the midterms in 2026 and the 2028 Presidential election.

Does Netflix stand by their Board Member… https://t.co/FmL458ugHm pic.twitter.com/CkjhDXWX0s

— Laura Loomer (@LauraLoomer) February 21, 2026

Trump has repeatedly called himself the “least racist person,” despite long-running accusations over his rhetoric.

Trump’s post comes days after his official account posted a video about the 2020 election that ended with an AI-altered clip of Barack and Michelle Obama’s faces superimposed on apes dancing to ‘The Lion Sleeps Tonight’. The video drew widespread condemnation, including from some Republicans. The White House called the backlash “fake outrage,” but removed the clip, blaming a staffer. Trump distanced himself and refused to apologize, saying, “No, I didn’t make a mistake,” and claiming he had not seen the post.

Netflix CEO Ted Sarandos dismissed Trump’s demand to fire Rice. “He likes to do a lot of things on social media… This is a business deal. It’s not a political deal,” Sarandos told BBC Radio 4, adding the merger is being handled by US and global regulators.

A company owned by US President Donald Trump has announced plans to build Australia’s tallest skyscraper.

The project by the Trump Organization and local developer Altus Property Group is for a 91-story luxury tower on Queensland’s Gold Coast. It will include a six-star hotel, 270 apartments, shops, a beach club and a swimming pool, both companies confirmed in separate statements on Monday.

The plan has received mixed reactions from locals.

“Anything Trump, I think, is terrible,” one local resident told 7NEWS. “He’s a strange individual, but he’s got plenty of dough. He knows where to put it,” said another.

Two rival petitions have emerged on Change.org. One is against the project, claiming the Trump brand sends “the wrong message about who we are as a community.” A counter-petition frames the tower as an economic necessity that will transform the area into a “thriving hub of activity and opportunity.” 

The site for the proposed development has sat vacant for more than a decade after a resort built there in 1971 was demolished in 2013 due to “concrete cancer.” Multiple towers were approved in the years since but never built. The site now contains only basement construction work from an abandoned 2016 project and has been described by a local petition as an eyesore slowly “rotting away.” 

The project has yet to receive formal approval from the Gold Coast City Council. Even if built, the tower’s status as Australia’s tallest may be temporary. Altus has announced plans for a 101-story, 393-meter tower in nearby Southport that would exceed the height of the proposed Trump project.

Trump Organization properties include hotels in New York, Las Vegas, Scotland, as well as Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Oman.

Hungary and Slovakia have warned they could cut off electricity and other energy supplies to Ukraine in response to Kiev halting the transit of Russian oil through the Druzhba pipeline.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban and Slovak leader Robert Fico have slammed the Ukrainian blockade as “political blackmail.”

On Wednesday, the two EU countries halted diesel supplies to Kiev, stating shipments will not resume until it restores Russian crude transit.

Why are Slovakia and Hungary warning Ukraine?

Ukraine has blocked the transit of Russian oil to Slovakia and Hungary via the Druzhba pipeline since late January. Kiev claims Russia damaged the infrastructure; Moscow denies this and has accused Ukraine of using energy to blackmail key partners.

Budapest and Bratislava also insist the pipeline is in working order and have accused Kiev of seeking revenge for the two countries’ opposition to possible Ukrainian membership of the EU, the bloc’s ongoing cash lifeline, and Slovakia’s refusal to provide military aid to Kiev. Both landlocked nations say they cannot fully meet their energy needs without Russian crude.

How dependent is Ukraine on energy supplies from Hungary and Slovakia?

While Ukraine’s dependence on diesel fuel from the two EU countries is moderate, standing at 11% of total imports last month, Kiev is far more reliant on the two nations for electricity and natural gas.

According to Ukrainian consultancy ExPro, so far this month Hungary has supplied 50% of Ukraine’s electricity and Slovakia 18%. Throughout 2025, Hungary consistently delivered the largest share, ranging from 35% to 50% of monthly supply. Slovakia’s share peaked at 30% last February.

In November, Vitaly Zaychenko, the head of grid operator Ukrenergo, described Slovakia as “one of the best markets in Europe for purchasing electricity,” noting the country’s abundant nuclear generation.

Ukraine’s reliance on natural gas is just as pronounced. On Wednesday, Budapest threatened to cut off supplies of natural gas. Last year, gas through Hungary covered 45.5% of Ukraine’s gas needs, while Slovakia delivered 20.5%, according to ExPro data. Poland was another major supplier.

Can Hungary and Slovakia unplug Ukraine?

Despite the threats to cut electricity, Hungary and Slovakia cannot do so unilaterally. Ukraine is a party to the Energy Community Treaty, and its grid is integrated into ENTSO-E, the network of Europe’s electricity grid operators. As members of the same synchronized grid, they are bound by EU regulations that explicitly prevent unilaterally halting cross-border power flows.

Experts note, however, that Budapest and Bratislava could apply coordinated political pressure and attempt to limit electricity supplies in response to the pipeline disruption.

The legal situation regarding natural gas is different: EU regulations contain no explicit prohibition on halting gas supplies to a non-member state such as Ukraine.

Why would Ukraine target Hungary and Slovakia?

The energy dispute is unfolding against a backdrop of long-standing friction between the two EU members and Kiev.

Hungarian Prime Minister Orban has long opposed Ukraine’s push to join the EU, warning that admitting Kiev would drag the bloc into direct conflict with Russia. He has also refused to send weapons or approve military aid, calling instead for diplomacy to reach a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia. Ukraine’s Vladimir Zelensky has engaged in a public war of words with Orban, and has used increasingly derogatory language to refer to the Hungarian leader.

Slovak leader Fico has similarly refused military aid to Ukraine and pledged to oppose any seizure of Russian assets frozen by Brussels after the escalation of the conflict in February 2022. In 2024, he survived an assassination attempt by an activist who targeted him for his refusal to follow NATO and EU policy on Ukraine.

How critical is a stable electricity supply for Ukraine?

In recent weeks, Russia has intensified drone and missile strikes on Ukraine’s power grid, leading to large-scale power outages.

Moscow says the attacks are aimed at undercutting weapons production and are in retaliation for Ukrainian strikes on Russian civilian infrastructure.

A Coca-Cola distributor is facing sex discrimination allegations following a corporate networking event that excluded men, the US Equal Employment Opportunity Commission (EEOC) has announced.

The case marks the agency’s first lawsuit over workplace diversity-focused programs since President Donald Trump took office, and the first one to claim that events of the kind are unlawful.

In the lawsuit filed on Tuesday, the regulator stated that Coca-Cola Beverages Northeast violated federal law when it hosted a two-day women-only event for about 250 employees at a casino in Connecticut in September 2024.

“Coca-Cola Northeast privately invited female employees and then excused the female employees, who attended the event from their normal work duties on September 10 and 11, 2024, and paid them their normal salary or wages without requiring them to use vacation or other paid time off,” the suit reads, highlighting that the company did not invite any male employees to the event.

Coca-Cola Northeast, which is owned by Japanese Kirin Holdings, has not commented on the lawsuit. Coca-Cola multinational is not a defendant in the case.

Shortly after assuming office in early 2025, Trump signed several executive orders aimed at eliminating diversity, equity ,and inclusion (DEI) initiatives, describing them as “radical,” within the federal government, its contractors, and grantees.

Many companies, including Walt Disney, JPMorgan Chase, Amazon, and Google, have faced similar criticisms and legal challenges and since scaled back or entirely abandoned their DEI programs.

Earlier this month, the EEOC launched an investigation into whether sportswear giant Nike discriminated against white employees.

More than 1,300 European industry organizations have urged Brussels to lower energy prices and carbon costs to save the bloc’s competitiveness.

The plea came on Wednesday as Belgium hosts two days of high-level talks dedicated to industrial revival.

“Bring energy and carbon costs down. The costs of energy in Europe are simply too high to compete and are not only driven by commodity prices but also by regulatory charges,” reads the declaration.

Multiple media outlets have quoted industry executives calling for electricity prices to return to pre-2021 levels of €44 ($52) per MWh from the current €80-100 range.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen told the European Industry Summit on Wednesday that the bloc was “well-positioned to lower costs,” citing planned improvements to the electric grid and expansion of offshore wind power projects.

The industry argues, however, that revamping the grid will take time, with the declaration urging the change “today.”

European energy prices have spiked since the EU introduced sanctions on major supplier Russia over the Ukraine conflict. Brussels has pursued a strategy of weaning itself off Russian energy through replacing cheaper pipeline gas with more expensive US LNG and accelerating a shift to renewable energy.

Russian presidential envoy Kirill Dmitriev has argued that “Europe will lose the competitiveness battle and will never catch up with the world without Russia.”

Carbon pricing is central to the competitiveness battle. EU industry executives point out that carbon costs elsewhere are far lower than within the bloc. The EU Emissions Trading System currently charges the industry approximately €80 per tonne of carbon, compared to China’s ETS at around €9 per tonne and South Korea’s at €7 per tonne.

Peru could lose its sovereignty to China over Chinese ownership of a major port in the South American country, the US has claimed.

The State Department’s Bureau of Western Hemisphere Affairs issued the warning after a Peruvian court temporarily restricted state regulator Ositran from supervising the Chancay port, which is owned by China.

The administration of US President Donald Trump has been trying to assert dominance over the Western Hemisphere, where China has long built influence through loans and trade.

The Bureau said on X on Wednesday that it was “concerned” the port was under “predatory Chinese” ownership.

“Cheap Chinese money costs sovereignty,” it warned.

Beijing on Thursday strongly rejected the US' “false accusation and disinformation.”

Cosco filed a constitutional complaint arguing Ositran overstepped by charging a fee meant for state concessions. A judge sided with the Chinese firm.

Cosco has stated the ruling “in no way involves aspects of sovereignty.” 

Washington’s warning follows a pattern of US efforts to push China out of Latin America. The US National Security Strategy calls for preventing non-Western “competitors” from owning or controlling key assets in the Western Hemisphere.

Critics have accused Washington of applying economic and military pressure while simultaneously lecturing regional governments on sovereignty.

In January, American special forces invaded Venezuela and captured President Nicolas Maduro. The US maintains sanctions on Caracas that forbid state oil company PDVSA from dealing with Chinese and Russian firms.

Five Democratic senators have urged US President Donald Trump to use free trade agreement talks with Canada and Mexico to crack down on their import of Chinese electric vehicles (EV), Reuters reported Wednesday, citing a letter to the US Trade Representative’s Office.

For years, the US and China have been locked in a large-scale trade war, in which the two nations have repeatedly slapped increasingly harsher tariffs on each other. The sides have exchanged accusations of unfair trade practices and economic sabotage. Amid the fight, Chinese EVs have been effectively blocked from the US market by steep tariffs and regulatory restrictions.

According to the document seen by Reuters, senators have called on the Trump administration to use the review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) to address concerns about Chinese EVs being imported by the neighboring states.

“USMCA must also be strengthened to meet the threats posed by Chinese competition, particularly Chinese cars,” the letter reportedly reads. “The economic and national security risks of Chinese vehicles entering the North American market are no longer a future threat – they are here today.”

During his latest visit to Beijing, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney secured a preliminary trade deal with China that includes provisions on electric vehicles. Under the agreement, Canada allowed up to 49,000 Chinese-made EVs into its market at a reduced tariff rate of 6.1%, down from the previous 100%.

In exchange, China agreed to lower tariffs on key Canadian exports such as canola seed and other agricultural products.

The White House has already taken a series of drastic steps to keep Chinese EVs out of the US market. The previous presidential administration raised import tariffs on them from 25% to 100%. The executive orders issued by Trump shortly after taking office in January 2025 brought the total effective US import tariff to 127.5%.

The EU has entered “emergency mode” over soaring energy costs after cutting back on Russian pipeline gas supplies and becoming increasingly dependent on the US, French President Emmanuel Macron has warned.

The bloc has seen a surge in energy prices since scaling back Russian oil and gas imports after the escalation of the Ukraine conflict in 2022. Moving away from relatively cheap Russian pipeline gas has forced it to rely more heavily on energy supplies from the US.

Speaking at the European Industry Summit in Belgium on Wednesday, Macron said that the EU remains dangerously exposed to energy shortages and market volatility. He explained that a combination of high costs, disrupted supply chains, and growing dependence on external partners signals that economic challenges are likely to persist.

Before the Ukraine conflict, the EU imported 45% of its gas from Russia – its largest foreign supplier since the end of the Cold War. Western sanctions and sabotage of key infrastructure have slashed Russian gas deliveries, although purchases of Russian LNG by EU countries remain significant. New legislation passed last month requires member states to stop all Russian energy imports by the end of 2027, further increasing what Macron described as the bloc’s “dangerous” exposure to supply risks.

The French president also warned that pressure from Washington is compounding the EU’s economic strain, saying the bloc is “clearly in emergency mode” as the US approach becomes “more and more confrontational.”

US President Donald Trump has used energy as leverage in trade talks, with the EU agreeing last July to buy $750 billion of American energy by 2028 to avoid higher tariffs.

Macron added that the EU can no longer rely on China as a key export market, warning that surging Chinese shipments to the bloc have reversed long-standing trade balances.

Industry leaders have urged Brussels to “take urgent measures,” warning that the EU “is losing industrial capacity at a speed we have never seen before.”

Moscow has said Western nations are hurting their own economies by choosing costlier and less reliable alternatives.

A senior Russian lawmaker slammed officials who restricted Telegram in the country as “idiots” and “scoundrels” on Wednesday. Sergey Mironov said Russian soldiers on the battlefield need the messenger to talk to their loved ones.

Users across Russia reported crippling issues with the messenger’s video and photo sending functionality over the weekend. On Tuesday, Russian media watchdog Roskomnadzor confirmed that it took action against Telegram for not complying with Russian laws.

Mironov, who heads the party ‘A Just Russia’ in parliament, argued that the slowdown is affecting Russian soldiers and volunteers who bring supplies to the front lines.

“These guys are shedding blood, and this is their only way to communicate with their families and friends. What are you doing, idiots?” he said in a video address published on his Telegram channel on Wednesday. “Those who are doing this are scoundrels.”

He argued that Russia was shooting itself in the foot with the slowdown.

If Telegram’s owner doesn’t comply with Russian law, that’s no reason to deprive Russian citizens of modern and accessible means of communication, nor is it a reason to undermine Russia’s defense capability or economy. Punish those responsible!

Earlier in the day, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov noted that Moscow is in contact with the firm’s representatives, but stressed that further action would be taken if it did not begin following the law.

Telegram CEO Pavel Durov has expressed dissatisfaction with the app slowdown, but did not address his company’s non-compliance with Russian law and made no offers to remedy the situation.

Russian officials have increasingly urged citizens to move to the new domestically developed MAX messenger as a secure alternative to foreign-based apps to help fight online fraud. Mironov has argued that people should be allowed to choose their preferred platform.

Israel has received its first crude oil shipment from Venezuela since the US imposed a blockade on the Latin American country and abducted its president, Bloomberg reported on Tuesday, citing people with knowledge of the deal.

The US launched a military operation to kidnap Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in early January, and now claims to have seized control of the country’s oil exports.

At least seven tankers deemed to have violated US sanctions have been seized since then, including a Russian flagged tanker in the mid-Atlantic, and Washington has banned Venezuelan oil producers from doing business with Russia and China.

Sources speaking on condition of anonymity told the news agency that the oil is being transported to Bazan Group, Israel’s largest crude processor. The shipment is reportedly the first of its kind since mid-2020, when Israel received about 470,000 barrels, according to data tracked by Kpler.

Venezuelan Information Minister Miguel Perez Pirela in a post on X on Wednesday referred to the report of the shipment as “FAKE!”

The reported shipment comes as part of Washington’s efforts to reroute flows of Venezuelan oil towards new international buyers. Earlier this week, Reuters cited trade sources as saying that India’s two state refiners purchased two million barrels of Venezuelan crude for delivery in the second half of April. Last week, the agency reported, citing shipping schedules, that two million barrels of crude from the South American country had been sent to refineries owned by oil producer Repsol in Spain.

China has condemned US actions against Venezuela, saying the use of force and interruption of oil shipments violated international law and the country’s sovereignty.

Earlier this year, US President Donald Trump said Washington plans to “control Venezuela’s oil resources indefinitely.”

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said earlier this week that the US is trying to take control of all international energy supply routes in an attempt to attain global economic dominance.

Ford Motor Company has reported that its electric vehicle division posted a $4.8 billion loss in 2025, warning it will continue losing money for at least two more years. Broader business strains pushed the US automaker to an $11.1 billion fourth‑quarter net loss.

The Michigan-based auto giant reported a full-year net loss of $8.2 billion for 2025, following a $19.5 billion EV-related writedown in December, even as it expects overall profitability to rebound in its broader business this year.

“We are now targeting break-even around 2029,” Ford’s chief financial officer, Sherry House, said on Tuesday during a conference call to discuss the company’s financial results.

The car maker’s adjusted fourth-quarter profit fell to $1 billion in 2025, down $1.1 billion from a year earlier, as tariffs and supply-chain issues hit the automaker.

Two factory fires at Ford’s key aluminum supplier and an unexpected $900 million in tariffs – after the administration of US President Donald Trump limited a relief program’s retroactive period to November instead of May – pushed total tariff costs for the year to $2 billion. Ford expects similar charges in 2026, House explained.

The aluminum plant near Oswego, New York, which suffered two major fires last year, is now expected to be fully operational only between May and September – a delay that has weighed on Ford’s results more than anticipated.

Gains in traditional vehicles and commercial operations helped cushion the blow from the EV division’s loss.

The automaker’s electric “Model e” division, however, is forecast to continue generating losses of up to $4.5 billion for the third straight year.

US automakers are scrambling to catch up with cheaper, faster Chinese EV rivals. Ford spun off its electric division from its Michigan base to speed up design and production, but even as it focuses on the EV pickup, the company wrote down $19.5 billion after scrapping earlier programs.

General Motors and Stellantis face similar hits, with $7.6 billion and $26.5 billion in EV-related charges, underscoring the challenge of competing with Chinese manufacturers that bring new models to market in roughly half the time.

British families will not see their living standards improve significantly within their own lifetimes due to a historic collapse in income growth, a new report has found.

Living standards for lower-income families in the UK have grown by just 0.5% a year over the past two decades despite rising employment, think-tank the Resolution Foundation reported on Monday.

The figure suggests that at this rate, it would take 137 years for their incomes to double. That timeframe stands in stark contrast to the 40-year period prior to 2004-05, when incomes doubled at an annual growth rate of 1.8%, the report noted.

The report partially blames the current pressures on the Ukraine conflict, which triggered a global energy crisis that impacted the UK through its energy links with the EU.

The bloc, along with the UK, has sanctioned affordable Russian energy, pressing ahead with plans to abandon it completely. The report notes that household energy costs remain nearly 60% higher and food prices almost 40% higher than pre-conflict levels.

“Families in the lower half of the income distribution have been working harder… yet they have not reaped the rewards in the form of markedly higher living standards growth,” the report states.

Despite this, the authors insist people must work more, specifically disabled people and parents. They also argue that businesses and workers must become more efficient to generate the higher wages needed to improve living standards.

The report calls on the government to revive national productivity, reform the tax and benefits system, and take direct action to ease cost-of-living pressures.

Russia’s seaborne crude shipments to China hit a record 1.86 million barrels per day (bpd) in January, up 46% year-on-year amid falling Indian imports and rising US pressure on New Delhi to curb Russian oil purchases.

In response to Western sanctions, Russia has rerouted most of its energy exports to Asia, particularly to India and China. Moscow’s energy exports to China are expected to keep rising, driven by strong demand, Aleksandr Daniltsev, Director of the Trade Policy Institute at the National Research University Higher School of Economics (HSE), told RT on Tuesday.

US President Donald Trump has repeatedly threatened secondary sanctions and tariffs on countries purchasing Russian energy. Last week, he removed a 25% tariff on India, saying that it has agreed to stop receiving Russian oil.

The shift pushed Moscow past Saudi Arabia to become China’s top crude supplier for the month. Russia’s seaborne shipments were 46% higher than Saudi Arabia’s roughly 1.2 million bpd in January, despite Riyadh’s long-standing role as China’s main seaborne supplier, data from energy analytics firm Kpler showed.

Over the past decade, China’s total energy imports more than doubled, while imports from Russia rose more than fourfold, Daniltsev stated.

Middle East developments could also boost Russia’s role, according to Daniltsev. “If tensions escalate, for example with Iran, a key supplier to China, Russia’s importance could increase further,” he said.

Deepening energy ties between Moscow and Beijing are reshaping the Asian oil trade, experts say. Despite Western sanctions, Russia is exporting record volumes to its largest buyer, while China is securing discounted supply with limited additional risk, traders said. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said on Monday that with the US creating “artificial barriers” to trade and energy, BRICS nations need to look for new, secure ways to advance financial, economic, and infrastructure projects.

The EU needs to “urgently” reduce its dependence on US payment systems Visa and Mastercard, the head of the bloc’s leading bank consortium, Martina Weimert, has urged.

The dominance of US tech solutions and services has increasingly become a concern in the EU over the past year as tensions between Brussels and Washington have risen since President Donald Trump returned to office.

Weimert, chief executive of the European Payments Initiative (EPI), which is made up of 16 European banks and financial services companies, cautioned that the bloc is “highly dependent on international [payment] solutions,” as quoted by Financial Times on Monday.

“We have nice national assets like domestic [payment] card schemes... but we don’t have anything cross-border,” she said, adding that “we need action urgently.”

Commenting on the ‘digital euro’ promoted by the European Central Bank (ECB) and expected to be launched in 2029, Weimert said that “we are a little bit out of time.”

According to ECB data cited by FT, Visa and Mastercard accounted for nearly two-thirds of card transactions in the Eurozone in 2022.

In an effort to reduce dependence on US tech, the French government said last month that it intended to phase out American videoconferencing services, such as Teams and Zoom, within a year and replace them with domestically developed apps.

In August, Germany’s Federal Ministry for Digital Affairs said that it planned to increase the use of European solutions and open-source software in government operations in lieu of Microsoft software.

Last year, the EU also slapped hefty fines on several US tech giants, including Meta, X, and Google, accusing them of violating the bloc’s antitrust laws, as well as regulations on data-driven advertising and content-moderation.

Trump blasted Brussels’ decisions as “unfair” and “discriminatory,” threatening the EU with tariffs.

The European Commission (EC) has accused social media platform TikTok of an “addictive design” in its app and threatened the company with massive fines over features regulators claim encourage compulsive use.

In a statement on Friday, the EC said TikTok’s features, including infinite scroll and autoplay, keep users engaged for prolonged periods, shifting the brain into an “autopilot mode.” 

“TikTok did not adequately assess how these addictive features could harm the physical and mental wellbeing of its users, including minors and vulnerable adults,” the statement reads.

Under the EU’s Digital Services Act, which enforces platform accountability and content moderation, TikTok could face fines of up to 6% of its global turnover for serious breaches. The Chinese-owned platform, which has more than one billion users worldwide, could post around $35 billion in revenue this year, according to estimates from the World Advertising Research Centre.

TikTok rejected the commission’s findings, calling them “a categorically false and entirely meritless depiction” of its platform.

The platform is also under a separate EC investigation launched in December 2024 over alleged foreign interference in Romania’s presidential elections. The country’s Constitutional Court annulled the first round vote after intelligence services alleged anti-establishment candidate Calin Georgescu’s lead stemmed from foreign meddling via TikTok – a claim the company rejected.

The EU’s crackdown on Big Tech has drawn criticism from the US government, which has threatened tariffs in response. Last year, the EC fined Elon Musk’s X €120 million ($140 million) over a “deceptive” verification badge and advert restrictions. Musk has called the EU a “bureaucratic monster” which “should be abolished.” 

Several European countries, including France, Australia, Germany, and the UK, are moving to limit social media access for younger teenagers amid concerns over their impact.

Across the European Union, factories are closing or quietly scaling back production. Chemical plants, steel mills, fertilizer producers – the most energy-intensive segments of the economy – are either relocating abroad or shutting down altogether. 

This is no temporary setback. Europe has not emerged from the energy crisis of 2022 and it won’t anytime soon. What is most alarming about this predicament is that Europe’s leadership is unable to grasp what is happening to it.

Policymakers are not oblivious to the loss of competitiveness but their approach to confronting the problem is lodged in a misguided paradigm. They want to bring energy prices down but give little thought to system-level costs. Beholden to an abiding faith in the power of policy to overcome physical constraints, they simply redistribute the burden of a declining energy surplus through an elaborate display of policy legerdemain. 

What Europe suffers from most of all is a profound, civilization-level energy illiteracy, which we will set out to explore. 

Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico recently called the EU’s plan to completely phase out imports of Russian gas by next November “energy suicide.” It’s remarkable that Europe has learned nothing from the past four years and is charging full steam ahead down the same path. It’s also particularly fitting that this suicide is so eagerly undertaken under the misguided notion of countering an external adversary. The historian Arnold Toynbee said that with few exceptions civilizations are not killed but commit suicide. 

But no civilization chooses the road to perdition on purpose, and Europe remains to this day mostly content with its rejection of Russian gas, while continuing to place its hopes in the green energy transition even as it unravels before our eyes. 

It should come as no surprise that the period of peak optimism in the energy transition – culminating in the Green New Deal (2019) – coincided perfectly with the peak of Russian gas supplies to Europe (2018-19). The ability of Germany, for example, to heavily subsidize its renewables industry over the past two decades was predicated on the energy surplus derived from availing itself of cheap Russian gas. In other words, the prosperity required to dabble in renewables was squarely a function of powering industry with cheap energy. 

When you have a Brussels-sized hammer, everything within reach is a nail

The Spanish philosopher Jose Ortega y Gasset distinguished between “ideas” and “beliefs.” Ideas lie closer to the surface: we adopt them, debate them, apply them, and discard them as needed. Beliefs, by contrast, are deeper and less examined. They inhabit the dimly lit subterranean realms of our being. We do not so much have them as inhabit them, and they quietly shape the framework within which all our ideas are formed.

In Europe’s case, chief among these beliefs is an unwavering faith in the ability of administrative ingenuity to overcome physical limits. If only the right policy mix can be found, the right subsidies provided, the right collaboration undertaken, the right regulations enacted, then all can be set aright – the physical reality be damned. Europe debates policy (the ideas) but rarely the underlying assumptions (beliefs).

It is exactly these assumptions that have underpinned Europe’s thinking about energy in recent decades. They informed the thinking that plunged Europe into the crisis in the first place and then shaped the response. 

In 2022, wholesale prices skyrocketed to more than €300 per megawatt hour (MWh), roughly ten times the historical average. What followed was the deployment of a vast administrative apparatus not to lower energy costs but to redistribute them. Price caps were introduced on household electricity and gas, while regulated tariffs were frozen. Governments also imposed windfall taxes on utilities and oil and gas producers. Direct subsidies were provided to compensate utilities and suppliers for losses created by those caps.

Then came the LNG scramble. Floating LNG terminals were built, along with new pipeline interconnections. Long-term LNG contracts were concluded at significantly higher costs. LNG delivers lower net energy than pipeline gas, while liquefaction, transport, and regasification are energy-intensive processes. The switch to LNG has already cost the EU tens of billions of euros upfront and that doesn't even count the higher cost of the gas itself. Given that much of the infrastructure buildout is funded through debt and public guarantees, and recovered through network charges, the bill for this bonanza will be paid over the course of decades. 

The emergency measures were of course improvised and implemented ad hoc, but they emerged entirely from the beliefs discussed above. Four year later, the shock phase may have ended – wholesale prices did later fall significantly – but the crisis continues, and the playbook for confronting it is fundamentally the same. Europe’s energy is now structurally more expensive, yet rather than deal with this problem head on, policymakers continue to tinker with the settings. 

For example, Germany has proposed direct relief for its moribund industry by introducing a subsidized “industrial electricity price” this year. At the EU level, Germany is also advocating that companies be allowed to combine multiple electricity price-support mechanisms, arguing that subsidies must be stacked. Italy has adopted a scheme allowing industrial consumers to access electricity at a fixed price well below recent national averages in exchange for commitments linked to renewable energy. This is really only the tip of the iceberg. 

This sophisticated game of whack-a-mole does not lower system-level energy costs; it merely redistributes them. The modern financial system and sprawling administrative bureaucracies such as the EU are exceptionally good at doing exactly that, namely obscuring physical reality by shifting costs across time and redistributing losses. Prices tell us what energy costs in financial terms, but not what it costs at the level of the system, or the opportunity cost of diverting more economic resources to obtain the same amount of more expensive energy. 

This dispersion is a feature of the system, but it is also precisely what policymakers seek. Their goal is to suppress the cost of the marginal unit (lower wholesale prices or lower end-user prices) while allowing the real cost to dissolve into complexity, where it becomes unmeasurable and politically safer. 

It takes energy to obtain energy, money is just along for the ride 

If price signals are incomplete or distorted, and monetary costs are distributed throughout the system and can be manipulated or obscured, then not only do we have no idea what the true cost of energy is, we lack a way to conceptualize it at all. Even if we could arrive at a dollar figure, what would that number actually mean?

The alternative is to conceive of energy not in monetary terms but in energy terms. This sounds reasonable enough, but it already represents a significant paradigm shift. It moves the discussion out of the realm of paper claims – money and debt, which can be shuffled endlessly and conjured out of nothing – and into the realm of the physical. 

We all understand that it takes energy to obtain energy. Drilling an oil well, extracting the oil, transporting it, refining it, and storing it are all energy-intensive processes. Energy is expended to obtain energy.

A process that uses one joule of energy to obtain one joule of energy produces no economic surplus. But the energy consumed in that process is not always easy to trace. It may be pulled from the future through debt, or distributed through a complex system of cost-bearing. What matters is that no amount of financial engineering can change the underlying energy balance. Either surplus energy is produced, or it is not.

When energy becomes more expensive, we are accustomed to looking for the difference only in prices. But to conceptualize the true extent of the problem, we have to look beyond prices.

The real question is what Europe must now expend more of, for example, to obtain LNG from the US instead of pipeline gas from Russia. The answer is: more economic resources, masquerading as mere money, have to be diverted. But here we mean economic resources, not financial resources (which would put us back into the world of paper claims). We’re talking about real output – or the capacity for it. That capacity, in turn, is ultimately a function of applied energy and is constrained by how much surplus energy is available. Germany’s deindustrialization points unmistakably in this direction. 

At a system level, when obtaining energy absorbs a rising share of surplus energy, less remains for everything else. The real cost of energy is therefore measured in energy itself. The relevant concept is ECoE (energy cost of energy), a metric used by energy-focused analysts precisely because it captures something real even if it cannot be calculated. More expensive energy means that more energy must be diverted merely to secure the same amount as before. 

How Europe obsesses over prices and thinks little of system-level costs

Bloomberg remarked in an article from December 2025 that the return of cheaper gas (compared with crisis levels) had not solved Europe’s energy crisis. It framed the issue as prices being almost back to normal but competitiveness still declining. The headline fact – gas prices in Europe had fallen to around €27/MWh – looks like vindication of the monetary framing. Prices have “normalized.” But normalized relative to what physical reality?

The article slips in a mention of a very revealing fact: European consumption is about 20% lower than pre-2022 levels. This is nothing more than demand destruction masquerading as stability. Europe’s marginal supply is now LNG, not pipeline gas, and LNG is structurally more energy-intensive. Meanwhile, costs have been socialized, capital has been written off, and, most tellingly, demand has been destroyed. 

So rather than a return to normal, system-level surplus energy is collapsing, which leads to industry restructuring, relocating, or simply contracting. Demand falls accordingly. Prices then come down because the energy-intensive parts of the economy are gone. And of course this is a classic example of closing the barn door after the horse escapes. Prices might have come down but industry isn’t coming back. 

The monetary system did exactly what it’s good at, but it still couldn’t fix the underlying problem. Giants such as BASF, Dow, and Thyssenkrupp are not threatening to leave, but are already gone or half-gone. 

What Bloomberg treats as a conundrum (maybe prices haven’t fallen enough or policy adjustments haven’t yet “worked”) is really just the outcome of declining surplus energy. The article treats competitiveness as the ultimate frame, whereas competitiveness itself is actually just downstream of energy surplus. From a surplus-energy perspective, Europe isn’t losing because it has chosen the wrong incentives or failed to fine-tune prices, but because its energy system now absorbs a larger share of economic output just to sustain itself. 

For a further look into Europe’s assumptions in action, it is worth examining a policy brief issued in late 2024 by the prestigious economic think tank Bruegel. The document, though dry and technical, is fascinating because it maps almost perfectly onto the flawed energy paradigm described above. 

The argument the brief advances is straightforward: the extreme electricity prices of 2022 were an aberration, and as renewables expand and gas recedes from the mix, electricity prices in Europe should fall. At the center of the analysis is a simple and rarely examined premise: falling wholesale prices are evidence that the system itself is becoming cheaper. This premise underpins much of the thinking around the green energy transition. 

Yet the brief itself carefully – and entirely unwittingly – documents the mechanisms that sever prices from system-level costs. It explicitly notes that as renewables expand, gas use declines and marginal generation costs fall, while the fixed-cost share of the system rises. So even if marginal costs fall, total obligations do not.

The brief further acknowledges, almost in passing, extensive cost redistribution: price caps, consumer shielding, industrial subsidies, cross-subsidization, and fiscal intervention to smooth outcomes. Of course, once prices are mediated at this scale, they no longer convey scarcity, and affordability ceases to reflect cost. Yet, despite all of this – and here the blind spot is clearest – the brief continues to speak as though “prices coming down” is still a meaningful indicator of underlying improvement. This contradiction runs through the analysis. 

Notably, the author never clearly states that overall system-level costs will decline. He does not demonstrate it and shows little interest in doing so. The analysis is profoundly blind to the question of surplus energy.

A civilizational marker 

The proliferation of subsidies, price caps, regulations, and credit lines does not make energy cheaper. It does not turn a less efficient energy source into a more efficient one. It merely redistributes claims on surplus energy or delays recognition of its decline. Running through the Bruegel document is a quiet, unspoken belief that Europe can design its way out of material disadvantage and overcome any constraint.

This belief in the power of sufficiently sophisticated administration is the sacral core – such as there is one – of the European Union. This confidence dovetails neatly with a belief that economic problems are really just monetary problems.

But, as we have demonstrated, the economy is not merely a monetary system in which physical constraints can be banished by the royal touch of policy. There is no amount of shuffling around of financial claims and no clever configuration of policies that will overcome the cold, hard laws of thermodynamics. 

That the economy is ultimately an energy system would be painfully obvious were it not a civilizational blind spot. For those in doubt, plot world population and total energy consumption on the same time axis from the Neolithic Revolution onward and see if the two curves can be distinguished. Population growth is an energy phenomenon before it is an economic one. Energy is foundational; finance is derivative.

Vaclav Smil, in his seminal work ‘Energy and Civilization’, argues that every historically successful energy transition delivered net advantages in energy density and system-level productivity. It is precisely this system-level productivity that Europe fails to confront. Doing so would require acknowledging hard constraints and, by extension, the impotence of the high priests of Brussels in the face of them. 

Far from solving any of these problems, Europe's sprawling administrative state is itself devouring ever more amounts of surplus energy. Joseph Tainter, well known for his treatise ‘The Collapse of Complex Societies’, warned about the declining marginal returns of rising complexity and of taking short-term gains at the price of long-term fragility. In Europe’s case, the complexity of the solutions is astounding but even the short-term gains are pretty paltry.

US technology stocks tumbled sharply after Amazon, Microsoft, Google, and Meta announced plans to spend a combined $660 billion on artificial intelligence in 2026. Investors worried the companies’ capital expenditures could outpace the technology’s earnings potential.
 
Amazon, Google, and Microsoft have lost a combined $900 billion in market value since reporting quarterly results last week. The companies’ spending plans exceed the GDP of Israel and overshadow strong growth in the companies’ cloud businesses.

“AI bubble fears are settling back in,” Brent Thill, an analyst at Jefferies, told the Financial Times on Friday. “Investors are in a mini timeout around tech, and nothing the companies say fundamentally matters.” 
 
Amazon shares fell 7.8% in premarket trading on Friday after the company said its 2026 capital spending would reach about $200 billion, $50 billion more than expected. The shares later stabilized. CEO Andy Jassy said the funds were needed to expand AI, robotics, chips, and satellite projects.
 
Alphabet said it plans to nearly double its capital expenditures next year, with much of the increase going to cloud and AI projects, putting pressure on its stock despite posting over $400 billion in revenue in 2025. Microsoft shares fell 18% after reporting large data center spending and disclosing that 45% of its $625 billion book of future cloud contracts is tied to OpenAI. Meta initially rose on AI-driven advertising growth but later fell amid wider tech weakness.
 
Apple, which has kept AI infrastructure spending low, gained 7.5% after reporting record quarterly revenue of $144 billion. Its capital expenditure fell 17% in the fourth quarter to $2.4 billion.

Markets were also unsettled after confirmation that OpenAI’s $100 billion investment and infrastructure deal with Nvidia did not proceed.

The World Economic Forum has launched an investigation into Borge Brende, the Davos Forum’s CEO, to clarify his relations with disgraced US financier Jeffrey Epstein, several news outlets reported on Thursday, citing the organization.

The US Justice Department published the final tranche of documents related to convicted sex offender Epstein, including his personal emails, last week. Spanning over 3 million pages, 2,000 videos, and 180,000 images, the trove has renewed scrutiny of Epstein’s connections to political, business, and tech figures.

Many of those named in the files were regulars at the annual forum in Davos, highlighting the fact that Epstein’s network overlapped with some of the world’s most influential circles. Among them were former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak, former US Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, tech leaders Elon Musk, Reid Hoffman, and Peter Thiel, as well as Bill Gates, former US President Bill Clinton, entrepreneur Richard Branson, and banking figures such as Ariane de Rothschild.

The board of the Geneva-based World Economic Forum (WEF) said it decided to initiate an independent review of Brende’s ties to the notorious financier, citing revelations about “three business dinners” the CEO attended with Epstein, as well as email and text exchanges.

“This decision underscores the Forum’s commitment to transparency and maintaining its integrity,” the WEF said, as cited by Bloomberg, stressing that Brende “fully supports, and cooperates with, this review, having indeed requested it himself.”

“I recognize that I could have conducted a more thorough investigation into Epstein’s history, and I regret not doing so,” Brende stated.

Epstein, who pleaded guilty in 2008 to soliciting prostitution and was sentenced to 18 months in prison for raping a minor, was arrested again in 2019 on charges of human trafficking and exploiting victims for prostitution. He died in his jail cell ahead of his trial.

The DOJ has gradually released materials related to the Epstein case under the Epstein Files Transparency Act, signed into law by US President Donald Trump.

Bitcoin has plummeted to below $63,000 on Thursday, wiping out all the gains it made since crypto-friendly US President Donald Trump entered office last year.

The cryptocurrency fell as much as 14% over the course of the day to $62,576, its lowest price since September 2024.

The nosedive erased nearly half of the token’s value since its all-time record of more than $120,000 last October, which was widely attributed to Trump’s policies and promises to establish the US as the “crypto-capital of the world.”

Recent geopolitical tensions have made investors more hesitant and risk-averse, sending crypto markets crashing, according to Bloomberg.

“As Bitcoin continues its slide below the psychological barrier of $70,000, it’s clear the crypto market is now in full capitulation mode,” the Investing.com portal cited Coin Bureau founder Nic Puckrin as saying on Thursday.

“If previous cycles are anything to go by, this is no longer a short-term correction, but rather a transition... and these typically take months, not weeks.”

The total crypto market capitalization has fallen around 12% to $2.18 trillion, according to CoinMarketCap data.

The remains discovered on a UK military base in southern Cyprus earlier this year have been identified belonging to Vladislav Baumgertner, the former head of Russian potash giant Uralkali, TASS reported on Wednesday.

The businessman’s body was identified through DNA analysis, British military police told the outlet.

“We have no information about the cause of death,” a police spokesperson said. “This means that the cause has not yet been determined.”

Baumgertner went missing in early January in the Limassol area. A week later, police found a body in a gorge on the territory of a British base. At the time, the authorities said it was impossible to identify the remains immediately due to advanced decomposition.

The businessman made international headlines in 2013 when he was arrested at Minsk airport in Belarus while travelling for talks with Belarusian officials.

He was charged with abuse of power for withdrawing Uralkali from a joint venture with Belaruskali, allegedly costing the Belarusian company about $100 million in damages. Baumgertner was held under house arrest in Minsk for three months before being extradited to Russia. The charges were dropped in 2015.

His body will reportedly be transported from Cyprus to Moscow, where the funeral will take place.

Elon Musk has become the first person ever to be worth $800 billion or more, after SpaceX acquired his AI and social media company xAI this week.

Forbes estimates that the merger, which values the combined company at $1.25 trillion, added $84 billion to Musk’s fortune, making it worth a record $852 billion.

Before the deal, Musk held a significant stake in SpaceX and a controlling share in xAI. In the wake of the merger, which valued the combined company at over $1 trillion, he now controls a large portion of the business, making it the most valuable part of his fortune.

Musk’s fortune has surpassed that of any individual ever recorded under modern wealth calculations, overtaking figures such as John D. Rockefeller, Jeff Bezos, and Bill Gates.

The deal makes SpaceX Musk’s most valuable asset. He also holds a stake in Tesla, along with stock options and a record-breaking pay package approved in November that could deliver up to $1 trillion if the company hits its ambitious “Mars shot” targets over the next decade.

Last year, Musk reached four major net worth milestones in just four months. He became the first person ever worth $500 billion in October as Tesla’s stock surged after he left US President Trump’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) to focus on the electric vehicle maker. In December 15, private investors valued SpaceX at $800 billion – up from $400 billion in August – pushing Musk’s net worth past $600 billion. Four days later, the Delaware Supreme Court restored his Tesla stock options, lifting his fortune above $700 billion.

Elon Musk’s SpaceX has completed the acquisition of his artificial intelligence startup xAI, the billionaire entrepreneur has announced. At about $1.25 trillion, it would be the largest corporate merger ever by implied value, public or private.

The acquisition is aimed at building a more integrated technology platform that combines artificial intelligence, rockets, satellite internet, direct‑to‑device communications, and real‑time computing infrastructure, the statement released by SpaceX on Monday reads.

Musk specifically cited the potential for space-based data centers as a future solution for the massive power requirements of the energy-intensive computing facilities necessary to power AI services, even though the concept is still unproven and largely theoretical.

“Global electricity demand for AI simply cannot be met with terrestrial solutions, even in the near term,” the billionaire said.

Sources cited by Bloomberg give SpaceX a valuation of $1 trillion and xAI a value of $250 billion, meaning the merger will create a combined enterprise with a potential value of $1.25 trillion, with shares reportedly to be worth $526.59 each.

Despite widespread criticism of xAI’s Grok chatbot over its promotion of racist content and the circulation of nonconsensual sexualized deepfake images involving women and children, the company has continued to attract investor interest during the global AI boom. In January, xAI said it had raised $20 billion in a Series E funding round led by major investors.

US President Donald Trump is set to build a strategic stockpile of critical minerals to reduce reliance on supplies dominated by China, Bloomberg has reported, citing sources.

Rare-earth minerals, used in technologies ranging from smartphones and electric vehicles to advanced weapons systems, have become a flashpoint in global trade. China dominates more than 90% of global rare-earth refining and nearly all permanent magnet production, giving it decisive control over supply chains vital to modern industry and defense.

People familiar with the matter told the outlet on Monday that Trump’s initiative, dubbed Project Vault, will combine private funding with a $10 billion loan from the US Export-Import Bank to acquire and store critical minerals. The stockpile is intended to shield manufacturers from price volatility and supply disruptions.

More than a dozen major companies, including General Motors, Boeing, and Alphabet’s Google, have reportedly joined the effort.

In April 2025, China introduced export controls on certain rare-earth elements used in military applications, citing national security concerns. Beijing later expanded the restrictions with stricter licensing requirements and extraterritorial provisions affecting exports linked to the US defense and semiconductor sectors. Following a meeting between Trump and his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, in October in South Korea, China agreed to suspend the latest controls for one year in exchange for reciprocal US tariff reductions. Despite the temporary reprieve, Washington has accelerated efforts to diversify supply chains, signing deals with multiple countries, including Australia, Japan, and Ukraine.

Russia has also moved to strengthen its position. President Vladimir Putin has instructed the government to develop a long-term strategy for rare-earth mining and production. Russia holds an estimated 658 million tons of rare metals, including 28.5 million tons of 15 rare-earth types, reserves it says are sufficient to meet the country’s long-term domestic needs.

Gold and silver prices fell further on Monday, extending losses after a sharp reversal of a recent rally that had lifted both to record highs.

Gold prices plunged 8% to $4,465 an ounce on Monday, breaking a streak of record highs that had briefly pushed the metal to nearly $5,600 last week, before a partial rebound. Silver dropped 7%, following a 30% slide on Friday.

The sell-off was triggered last week after US President Donald Trump said he would nominate former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh to succeed Fed Chairman Jerome Powell when his term ends in May, pending Senate confirmation. Trump said he had not asked Warsh to commit to rate cuts, calming fears that the central bank could pursue aggressive monetary policy.

Some of the earlier surge was driven by speculative buying from China, with traders pouring hot money into metals markets, Bloomberg reported, pushing metals far beyond historical trading ranges and magnifying the speed and scale of last week’s collapse.

The rally ahead of Friday’s crash generated major gains for Russia that are reportedly comparable to the value of its sovereign assets frozen in the West – around $300 billion. Unlike the frozen assets, Moscow’s gold reserves can be sold or pledged as collateral, restoring significant financial capacity.

Mohit Kumar of Jefferies said the sell-off in gold appeared to be “an unwind” of a “crowded” trade.

“Gold was one of the most crowded positions, with positioning reaching close to 8 [on a scale of -10 to 10] on our indices last week,” The Guardian quoted him as saying. “Last two days’ move has taken the positioning to just above four. Still on the long side but much less crowded, suggesting that the bulk of weaker hands have been cleaned out.”

Precious metals surged in 2025, with gold posting its biggest annual gain since 1979.

EU gas storage has fallen to its lowest level for this time of year since the 2022 energy crisis, as below-normal reserves and cold weather accelerate withdrawals, the Financial Times has reported.

The bloc has seen a sharp rise in energy prices since cutting back on Russian oil and gas imports after the escalation of the Ukraine conflict four years ago. Moving away from relatively cheap Russian pipeline gas has forced the bloc to rely more heavily on energy supplies from the US.

New legislation passed last week requires EU member states to stop all Russian energy deliveries by the end of 2027, increasing the bloc’s exposure to supply risks.

European gas prices hit their biggest monthly gain in over two years as supply concerns mount, with the Dutch TTF benchmark – a key European gas price index – rising to €42.60 ($46) per megawatt-hour last week, a ten-month high, the FT said on Sunday.

Severe winter storms in the US have disrupted domestic gas markets, pushing up European prices as the region increasingly relies on American LNG shipments after a sharp drop in Russian pipeline supplies.

The EU is short by roughly 130 full-sized cargoes compared with last year, with storage at 490 terawatt-hours as of January 29, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE). Gas reserves in the region are now at 43% of capacity – the lowest seasonal level since 2022.

Last week, Russian energy giant Gazprom said Europe had withdrawn more than 81% of the gas stored in underground facilities in preparation for the current heating season, citing data from GIE.

“Gas reserves in France and Germany are also at their lowest levels for January 28,” Gazprom added.

Before the Ukraine conflict, the EU imported 45% of its gas from Russia – the bloc’s largest foreign supplier since the end of the Cold War. Western sanctions and sabotage of key infrastructure have slashed Russian gas deliveries, although purchases of Russian LNG by EU countries remain significant.

To bridge the gap, the EU has increasingly turned to more expensive American LNG. US President Donald Trump has used energy as leverage in trade talks, with the bloc agreeing last July to buy $750 billion of US energy by 2028 to avoid higher tariffs – a move critics call coercive.

Gold and silver prices plunged on Friday in one of their worst single-day declines in years after US President Donald Trump named former Federal Reserve governor Kevin Warsh to lead the central bank.

Gold fell 12% from its January 29 peak of roughly $5,600 per ounce to around $4,800, marking its steepest one-day loss in more than a decade, although it is still up about 65% year-on-year. Silver, which had far outpaced gold’s gains over the past year, sank more than 30% to under $80 an ounce, its worst drop since 1980. The rout wiped out more than $7.4 trillion from gold and silver prices in 24 hours, roughly equivalent to a quarter of the US economy.

Both metals had recently surged on fears the Fed could lose its independence and be forced to hold rates artificially low to help finance government debt. Analysts say Friday’s selloff was triggered after Trump – who repeatedly attacked Fed chair Jerome Powell for refusing to cut rates – named Warsh as the next Fed chair.

Although Warsh was previously hawkish on interest rates, echoing Powell’s concerns that premature cuts could stoke inflation, he has recently shifted tone, saying Trump was “right to be frustrated” by the slow pace of rate cuts.

Analysts also said the announcement triggered a long-overdue correction, with months of uninterrupted gains leaving both metals technically overbought and elevated prices offering traders an attractive exit, amplifying selling once sentiment turned.

Despite the sharp pullback, many forecasts for safe-haven assets remain bullish, with analysts saying the core drivers of the 2025 rally – geopolitical tensions, persistent inflation risks, trade frictions tied to Trump’s tariff policies, and the expanding US debt burden – remain intact.

US federal authorities are investigating allegations that staff at WhatsApp owner Meta Platforms Inc. had access to message content despite the company marketing the app as protected by end-to-end encryption, Bloomberg reported on Thursday.

Special agents from the US Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Industry and Security have been examining claims from former Meta contractors who alleged that they and staff at Meta had “unfettered access” to WhatsApp messages.

One contractor told an investigator that a Facebook team employee confirmed they could “go back a ways into WhatsApp (encrypted) messages,” including in criminal cases, according to an agent’s report reviewed by Bloomberg.

WhatsApp, which was acquired by Meta in 2014, insists on its website that “no one outside of the chat, not even WhatsApp, can read, listen to, or share” what a user says.”

Meta spokesperson Andy Stone had also denied the allegations, stating that “what these individuals claim is not possible because WhatsApp, its employees, and its contractors, cannot access people’s encrypted communications.”

Bloomberg noted that the inquiry, internally dubbed “Operation Sourced Encryption,” was described as ongoing in a July 2025 document and was reportedly active as recently as January. However, its current status is unclear, the outlet said, noting that many such investigations end “without any formal accusations of wrongdoing.”

Controlled by billionaire Mark Zuckerberg, Meta also owns Facebook and Instagram, and in 2019 paid the US federal government $5 billion over a data privacy scandal involving the unauthorized harvesting of millions of Facebook users’ personal information by a British consulting firm Cambridge Analytica for political advertising.

Pavel Durov, founder of the rival Telegram app, recently mocked anyone trusting WhatsApp’s encryption claims, stating that “you’d have to be braindead to believe WhatsApp is secure in 2026.”

Last year, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov also stated that all messaging apps are “absolutely transparent systems” to intelligence and security services and urged people to refrain from sharing sensitive information on such platforms.

Unemployment in Germany has risen to a 12-year high, official figures released on Friday show. The labor report comes as the country’s struggling economy risks a third consecutive year without growth.

Data from the Federal Employment Agency (BA) shows that 177,000 more people were out of work in January than in December, bringing the total to over 3 million. The seasonally unadjusted unemployment rate climbed by 0.4 percentage points to 6.6%.

“There is currently little momentum in the labor market,” said BA chief Andrea Nahles, noting that companies remain cautious amid slow growth and economic uncertainty.

According to S&P Global’s flash Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), Germany’s private‑sector business activity strengthened in January, however, manufacturing remained weak and job cuts accelerated.

Germany’s economic difficulties come after two consecutive years of recession in 2023 and 2024, and a period of near-stagnation in 2025. This week, the government lowered its growth forecasts for 2026 and 2027, warning that fiscal measures have not stimulated the economy as quickly as anticipated. Economy Minister Katherina Reiche said that the country must pivot toward new “growth engines,” arguing that traditional export strengths “no longer carry our growth.”

Analysts have warned that the German government’s €1 trillion ($1.2 trillion) investment plan in infrastructure and defense, part of a broader militarization move across much of the EU, could further weaken the economy.

The German Economic Institute has described the economy as having entered a state of “shock” in recent forecasts, citing weak foreign demand, high interest rates, and a prolonged energy crisis.

US President Donald Trump has tapped former Federal Reserve governor Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell as the institution’s chair. Warsh has signaled that he is willing to slash interest rates, a move long advocated for by Trump.

Trump revealed his choice in a Truth Social post on Friday morning, ending a months-long search for a successor to Powell. Warsh, an academic, Wall Street veteran, and former member of the Fed’s governing board, will take over from Powell in May, if confirmed by the US Senate.

“I have known Kevin for a long period of time, and have no doubt that he will go down as one of the GREAT Fed Chairmen, maybe the best,” Trump wrote.

While searching for a replacement, Trump repeatedly attacked Powell for his refusal to cut interest rates, a move that would – in theory – stimulate the economy and reduce the cost of servicing more than $30 trillion in national debt. Trump has referred to Powell as a “moron,” and a “numbskull” for his refusal to implement the steep rate cuts he demanded.

Elon Musk is considering ways to consolidate his business empire, with potential mergers involving SpaceX, Tesla, and xAI, Bloomberg reported on Thursday, citing sources.

According to the outlet, two main options are under discussion: a tie-up between SpaceX and Tesla, or a merger between the space company with Musk’s artificial-intelligence firm xAI.

The scenarios are seen as advancing Musk’s long-term vision for SpaceX, including space-based data centers for advanced AI computing. Such infrastructure could give xAI access to vast processing power, boosting its competitiveness against rivals such as OpenAI and Google.

A merger with xAI is also viewed as a way to turn SpaceX – already a major provider of military and intelligence satellite launches which holds multiple national security contracts with the US government – into an even larger, more diversified company ahead of its planned 2026 IPO.

Musk had already hinted at closer integration across his companies. In a November post on X, he wrote that his businesses were “trending towards convergence,” prompting speculation over whether he was signaling deeper collaboration or potential mergers.

Analysts remain divided on the prospects. Most see a SpaceX-xAI merger as more realistic due to clearer technological synergies, while a SpaceX-Tesla deal is widely viewed as unlikely given regulatory, governance, and structural hurdles. However, venture capitalist Chamath Palihapitiya praised the idea, saying a Tesla-SpaceX merger would create “the Berkshire Hathaway of the modern century,” citing capital-raising and operational efficiencies.

A merger between SpaceX and Tesla would instantly create the Berkshire Hathaway of the modern century.

The capital raising and operational efficiencies if both were together are obvious.

If this were to happen, it would also bring us one step closer to having one equity…

— Chamath Palihapitiya (@chamath) January 29, 2026

Tesla has faced a challenging year: the company reported its first annual revenue decline in 2025 amid slowing vehicle demand and rising competition, even as its stock has shown modest gains.

The US dollar’s status as global reserve currency could be called into question as early as this year, the German financial regulator has warned in its annual forecast. According to a report published on Wednesday by the Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin), the dollar could suffer from funding shortages, geopolitical shocks, and politicization.

The forecast follows the dollar’s worst single-day decline in nearly a year. On Tuesday, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, a key indicator of its strength against other major currencies, recorded its steepest drop since last April, when US President Donald Trump rolled out his sweeping global tariffs agenda.

“The risk remains that markets will question the role of the US dollar as the global reserve currency,” BaFin President Mark Branson said. He warned that “drastic attempts to politicize institutions” could undermine the effectiveness of international cooperation, particularly during an economic or financial crisis.

This week, Bloomberg reported that traders were betting heavily that the US dollar would continue to fall amid uncertainty over Washington’s policies. According to the outlet, markets were more pessimistic about the dollar’s long-term outlook than at any point since May 2025. Trump earlier dismissed concerns over the currency’s weakness, insisting it is “doing great” and that he wants the dollar to “just seek its own level.”

The EU is seeking new gas suppliers as growing reliance on US-sourced liquefied natural gas (LNG) and deteriorating relations with Washington have raised concerns over energy security.

The bloc has faced a surge in energy prices since reducing Russian oil and gas imports following the 2022 escalation of the Ukraine conflict. The shift away from comparatively inexpensive Russian pipeline gas has increased reliance on US energy, while legislation passed this week requires member states to halt all Russian deliveries by late 2027, leaving the EU exposed to supply risks.

Energy Commissioner Dan Jorgensen told reporters on Wednesday that “geopolitical turmoil” regarding Greenland has been a “wake-up call” for the region, which now relies on the US for more than half of its LNG supplies.

“There is a growing concern, which I share, that we risk replacing one dependency with another,” Jorgensen, Denmark’s representative in the European Commission, said. “We need to diversify it as much as possible,” he added, noting that he will travel to Canada, Qatar, and North African countries in the coming months to discuss supplies.

The autonomous Danish territory of Greenland has been at the center of a transatlantic rift since US President Donald Trump announced plans to annex it, citing its mineral wealth and strategic location, while initially refusing to rule out the use of force and threatening tariffs on opponents of the plan.

Before the escalation of the Ukraine conflict in 2022, the EU imported 45% of its gas from Russia – the bloc’s largest foreign supplier since the end of the Cold War. Western sanctions and sabotage of key infrastructure have slashed Russian gas deliveries; however, purchases of Russian LNG by the bloc remain significant.

Reacting to the EU’s recent decision to ban all Russian gas imports, Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said this could turn member states into Washington’s “miserable slaves.”

Traders are betting big that the US dollar will continue to fall amid uncertainty about Washington’s political and economic policies, Bloomberg has reported.

The dollar suffered its worst single-day decline in nearly a year on Tuesday, plunging to its lowest level since February 2022. The fall was part of a broader downtrend that began after US President Donald Trump launched sweeping global tariffs early last year. The resulting trade frictions, as well as expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and rising deficits and debt have been undermining confidence in the currency.

“US policy volatility is now debasing the dollar,” said Luis Costa, Citi’s head of emerging markets strategy. “This… is prompting a market reshuffle into dollar shorts.”

Bloomberg said options that profit from a falling dollar are now the most expensive since 2011, as traders use them as insurance against a drop. Markets are also more negative on the dollar’s long-term outlook than at any point since May 2025, the outlet noted. Rising investor anxiety is pushing up hedging costs, with short-term dollar volatility at its highest since September and demand for protection against large swings climbing, signaling traders expect further losses.

While a weaker dollar can help multinationals convert foreign profits and boost US exporters’ competitiveness, critics warn it also risks acting as a hidden tax on consumers, raising import costs, fueling inflation, harming foreign suppliers, and undermining the greenback’s global standing as a reserve currency.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Wednesday argued that, over time, Trump’s economic policies will attract investment and help strengthen the greenback.

“The prices on the screen can fluctuate over six months, a year,” he stated. “If we have sound policies the money will flow in, and we are bringing down our trade deficits so, automatically that should lead to more dollar strength over time.”

Russian oil major Lukoil has said it has agreed to sell most of its international assets to American private equity giant Carlyle Group. The US has targeted Russia’s second-biggest oil producer with sanctions, forcing it to divest its overseas holdings worth $22 billion.

Washington has imposed broad sanctions on the Russian oil sector since the Ukraine conflict escalated in February 2022. Along with oil majors, including Rosneft, Gazprom Neft, Surgutneftegas, and their subsidiaries, the US has banned American firms from deals with Russian oil companies, joined the G7 price cap on Russian energy, and imposed restrictions on more than 180 oil tankers and ships.

Moscow has argued that the sanctions show that the West is scrambling to maintain dominance and is resorting to anti-democratic and anti-market practices to eliminate competition.

Lukoil said on Thursday that the transaction is subject to regulatory approvals, including clearance from the US Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control. The company did not disclose the financial terms, but stressed it is continuing talks with other potential buyers. It noted that the deal doesn’t include its assets in Kazakhstan.

A previous offer from Swiss-based trader Gunvor Group reportedly collapsed in November after the US Treasury accused the firm of having ties with Moscow. Gunvor, headquartered in Geneva, was co-founded in 2000 by Swedish businessman Torbjorn Tornqvist and Russian entrepreneur Gennady Timchenko. Timchenko sold his stake in 2014, when Washington targeted him with personal sanctions.

Founded in Washington in 1987, Carlyle Group currently manages around $474 billion in assets. The company has long-standing business ties to US President Donald Trump. In 2005, the firm took part in a $1.8 billion deal to acquire land and three buildings from Trump in Manhattan. In December, The Atlantic reported that Trump and Carlyle co-founder and billionaire David Rubenstein “regarded each other as friends.”

The US dollar has reached a four-year low, having dropped 2.3% in January following a 9% decline in 2025. However, US President Donald Trump seems unfazed by the downturn, calling the level of the greenback “great” in comments on Tuesday.

But Trump’s position on the dollar has hardly been consistent – or even coherent. In July 2025, he said “I will never say I like a low currency,” adding “I’m the person that likes a strong dollar, but a weak dollar makes you a hell of a lot more money.” 

What Trump really wants is to have his cake and to eat it too. Trump often equates a strong dollar with national power and prestige and likes its status as the world’s primary currency for trade and transactions. But he would also like a weaker dollar because that makes American goods cheaper to buy abroad, which could provide a boost to his aim of bringing manufacturing back to the US, a pillar of his MAGA platform.

He has previously called an overpriced dollar “a big problem” in the context of reshoring industry and bringing jobs back. On the other hand, a weak dollar raises the cost of imports, thus putting upward pressure on inflation, and Trump is very sensitive to inflation.

A weaker dollar is also consistent with Trump’s stated goals of reducing US trade deficits. Whether reducing trade deficits is even a worthy goal is a completely separate question. But here again, Trump runs into a dilemma – in fact it’s one that has a name: the Triffin Dilemma.

China might be on its way to becoming the globe’s economic superpower, but its trade structure (and capital controls) makes it very unlikely the yuan will become the globe’s go-to currency.

So does Trump want to end trade deficits or maintain the status of the dollar? Hard to see how he could have both.

Many analysts think that given the explosion of US debt and deficits, a weaker dollar is essentially inevitable. There are three defining features to the current situation. The US has: (1) large and persistent fiscal deficits now running at around $2 trillion per year; (2) a huge stock of outstanding debt that now stands at over $38.5 trillion; (3) and it issues the global reserve currency. These three features have to somehow be made to work.

So the US is trying to keep borrowing a lot, keep owing a lot, and keep supplying dollars to the world. And it’s trying to do this without crashing the economy or spiking interest rates.

Also think about it like this: a strong dollar means US assets are more expensive in local-currency terms so foreign investors hesitate to allocate to dollar assets (such as US debt). So the US ends up with more debt to issue and fewer willing foreign buyers. This means higher yields if the dollar stays too strong – and higher yields are very dangerous for the US financial system as we have seen on many occasions. A strong dollar is therefore ultimately a destabilizing force.

So what Trump is really trying to do is hold these the features listed above together despite the centrifugal forces pulling them apart. How much of that does Trump really understand? Hard to say, but he’s not wrong to embrace a weaker dollar.

The price of gold has soared to a new record as investors continue to seek safety amid escalating geopolitical tensions and mounting economic uncertainties.

Gold futures continued their strong rally, with the February 2026 Comex contract surging to a record high of $5,600 per troy ounce on Thursday morning before retreating to around $5,550, according to exchange data.

Silver futures also extended their rally, with the March 2026 Comex contract climbing above about $119 per troy ounce before easing back slightly.

The prices of both gold and silver have surged over the past year, as precious metals are commonly viewed as safe-haven assets in times of market turbulence. Gold rose by more than 60% in 2025, partly due to concerns over global tensions and economic volatility. Silver followed an even sharper trajectory, climbing 127% in 2025 amid strong investor demand and safe-haven buying.

Analysts attribute the recent rally to escalating tensions, including US President Donald Trump’s warning to Iran on Wednesday to come to the negotiating table on nuclear weapons, amid Tehran’s threat to retaliate against the US, Israel, and their allies.

Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged on Wednesday as expected. Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that December inflation likely remained well above the central bank’s 2% target.

Marex analyst Edward Meir told Reuters that rising US debt and the uncertainty sparked by indications that the global trade system is fragmenting into regional blocs, rather than remaining US-centric, are driving investors toward gold.

The latest rally has generated windfall gains for Russia that are reportedly comparable to the value of its sovereign assets frozen in the West – around $300 billion. Unlike the frozen assets, Russia’s gold reserves can be sold or pledged as collateral, restoring significant financial capacity.

Amazon will cut about 16,000 jobs in a second round of layoffs linked to a restructuring driven by its focus on artificial intelligence, the company said on Wednesday.

The first round of layoffs took place in October and affected 14,000 employees. Combined, the two rounds will amount to roughly 10% of the company’s office workforce.

Amazon tied the layoffs to the need to “to strengthen our organization by reducing layers, increasing ownership, and removing bureaucracy.” The tech giant plans to “continue hiring and investing in strategic areas and functions that are critical to our future,” it said in a statement. Further workforce reductions are possible, it added.

According to Reuters, the company is planning to close its remaining brick-and-mortar Fresh grocery stores and Go markets, as well as abandon its Amazon One biometric payment system.

In October, the company explained its decision by pointing to the introduction of AI technologies that are “enabling companies to innovate much faster than ever before.”

Since 2024, the tech giant has committed about $40 billion to four data center projects in the US, as it builds up its infrastructure to compete with OpenAI, Google, Microsoft, Meta, and others.

The announcement came just a day after UPS, another US-based corporation, said it would cut an additional 30,000 positions, largely because of scaling down its collaboration with Amazon. The delivery company already eliminated 62,000 jobs last year.

UPS made the announcement on the same day it reported earnings for 2025. The company’s net income amounted to $5.57 billion last year, down from $5.78 in 2024.

The price of gold has continued to rally on Wednesday, reaching above $5,300 per ounce to an all-time high. The rally has been attributed to strong safe-haven demand amid geopolitical uncertainty and a weakening US dollar.

On Wednesday, spot gold prices rose to $5,319 as of 19:50 GMT, extending the precious metal’s record-breaking streak. Prices have gained more than 20% since the start of the year, building on last year’s substantial gains.

According to analysts, the rally has been supported by a combination of global uncertainty and economic factors, including tensions in the Middle East, increased central bank buying, as well as US President Donald Trump’s military intervention in Venezuela and his push to acquire Greenland, which have boosted demand for tangible assets. The US dollar’s nosediving to a four-year low this week has reinforced gold’s appeal as a hedge against instability.

The rally has brought Russia substantial financial gains and has in fact largely offset the roughly $300 billion in central-bank reserves frozen in the West. Unlike the funds immobilized abroad, Russia’s domestically held gold reserves can be sold or pledged as collateral, providing Moscow with greater financial flexibility.

Russia’s reported central-bank gold reserves totaled 74.8 million troy ounces (2,326.54 metric tons) at the start of 2026. The market value of that holding climbed nearly 67% in 2025, from $195.7 billion to $326.5 billion.

Western companies will fall over themselves in their rush to reestablish business in Russia once the Ukraine conflict is over, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico has said.

After the hostilities in Ukraine escalated in 2022, the West imposed an unprecedented slew of sanctions on Russia, aiming to severely damage its economy. The measures, in combination with Russian countersanctions, forced many Western companies to divest from their businesses in Russia.

At a press conference on Tuesday, Fico commented on the EU’s latest plan to completely phase out Russian gas imports by November of next year, which he likened to “energy suicide.”

However, the Ukraine conflict will likely be over by that date, he argued.

“And write it down, everyone, when the military conflict ends, everyone will break their legs running to Russia to do business,” Fico said.

Afterward, “we will all come to our senses,” he added.

“Because breaking away from Russian energy in this way is suicide. And it’s not just me saying this. German economists, German politicians, and now other politicians from the European Union are also saying the same thing today.”

Slovakia and Hungary, both of which are heavily reliant on Russian energy imports, have said that they will sue the EU over the looming gas ban, arguing that it illegally bypassed their opposition on what was essentially a new sanction, the imposition of which requires unanimous approval.

According to Russian President Vladimir Putin, many European companies are waiting for sanctions to be lifted and are “eager to return” to do business in Russia. “Those who wish to return are always welcome,” he said at the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok last year.

Poverty in the UK has worsened, with record numbers living in severe hardship and unable to afford basic necessities, according to an analysis by a leading charity.

More than one in five people in the UK – about 14.2 million – were living in poverty in 2023/24, the final year of the last Conservative government and the latest year for which official figures are available, the Joseph Rowntree Foundation (JRF) said in a report on Tuesday. Of these, about half, or 6.8 million people, were experiencing “very deep” hardship, the highest number in 30 years.

Children, renters, disabled people, and those in insecure work were among the groups most affected. Nearly 4.5 million children lived in poverty in 2023/24, 600,000 more than during the pandemic and marking the third consecutive year of increases. Rates were highest in larger families, where 44% of children were affected. People renting privately faced greater risks than homeowners, while disabled people and informal carers were also disproportionately affected, the report noted.

The most severe cases are even more acute. About 3.8 million people, including around one million children, experienced destitution, being unable to afford basics such as heating, clothing, and food.

Poverty rates varied across the UK, with London and the West Midlands among the hardest-hit areas, according to the report.

Rising living costs and stagnant wages have contributed to the increase in severe poverty, the charity stated. Inflation for essentials such as food, energy, and rent has surged in recent years, while earnings for low-income households have barely increased, leaving many struggling to cover basic needs.

The poorest UK households have only become poorer under Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s Labour government, despite promises to boost living standards, according to the latest data from independent research consultancy Retail Economics.

The dollar suffered its worst single-day decline in nearly a year on Tuesday, plunging to a four-year low after US President Donald Trump publicly welcomed the currency’s weakness.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, a key gauge of the greenback’s strength against other major currencies, recorded its steepest drop since last April, tumbling to its lowest level since February 2022. The sell-off accelerated immediately after Trump, speaking to reporters in Iowa on Tuesday, was asked if the dollar had fallen too much.

“No, I think it’s great,” he responded. “I think the value of the dollar – look at the business we’re doing. The dollar’s doing great.”

Market analysts interpreted the comments as a significant departure from the traditional ‘strong dollar’ mantra upheld by administrations of both parties. Axios suggested that Trump’s refusal to recite this “boilerplate” language rattled traders.

The dollar’s sharp decline is part of a broader downward trend that began when Trump rolled out his sweeping global tariff agenda in April 2025. Recent pressure has also come from a resurgent Japanese yen amid political shifts in Tokyo, with traders on alert for potential coordinated currency intervention by the US and Japanese authorities.

Anta Sports Products, the biggest sportswear retailer in China, will acquire a 29% stake in the German Puma brand, which would make it the company’s biggest shareholder. The iconic company was struggling before the deal, with its shares trading near their lowest levels in a decade.

The Chinese firm will purchase its stake from the Pinault family, one of the wealthiest in France. They control the luxury conglomerate Kering, which owns brands like Bottega Veneta, Gucci, and Yves Saint Laurent. The Pinaults had initially acquired a controlling stake in Puma in 2007 but have since gradually reduced it.

Fujian-based Anta agreed to pay the family €1.51 billion ($1.8 billion) in cash for 43.01 million shares at €35 each. The offer amounted to a 62% premium over Puma’s closing share price of €21.63 on Monday, causing the German company’s stock to surge 17% following initial reports of the deal. The price eventually settled at 9% higher.

Anta has announced plans to expand the brand’s presence in China. “Puma has more potential in the Chinese market, where they are underrepresented with only 7% of their global revenues. We have a lot of insight on how to make Puma more successful in China,” Wei Lin, the company’s global ⁠vice president for sustainability and investor relations, told Reuters.

The Chinese company also plans to secure board representation at Puma after the deal is finalized, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Anta has previously acquired a string of other Western brands, including Finland-based Amer Sports, which owns Arc’teryx, Salomon, and Wilson, as well as the German label Jack Wolfskin.

The latest acquisition marks a “major step forward in our ‘single-focus, multi-brand, globalisation’ strategy,” Ding Shizhong, the chairman of the group, told South China Morning Post.

The EU is destined for economic decline and deeper dependence on the US due to its new ban on Russian gas imports, German MP Sahra Wagenknecht has said, describing the bloc as “a trampled worm.”

On Monday, EU countries gave final approval to legislation requiring all 27 member states to end imports of Russian gas by next year. The measures include a complete ban on liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports, followed by a prohibition on pipeline gas deliveries which takes effect on September 30, 2027.

“The EU is sealing its economic decline and complete dependence on US fracking gas,” the former legislator said in a post on X on Monday.

“Anyone who makes himself a worm should not complain about being trampled underfoot,” she remarked.

For years, Washington had criticized the EU over what it called increasing dependence on Russian energy supplies, pushing the bloc to diversify its imports.

After the escalation of the Ukraine conflict in 2022, the bloc sharply reduced Russian pipeline imports as part of its sanctions against Moscow.

At the same time, the EU increased its reliance on more expensive US-sourced LNG, which reportedly now accounts for nearly a quarter of the bloc’s consumption. Germany, meanwhile, has reportedly become almost entirely dependent on the super-chilled American fuel.

The EU has designed a mechanism to allow legislation to be approved by a qualified majority of countries in order to overcome opposition. Hungary and Slovakia remain heavily reliant on Russian energy imports and have reportedly voted against the move. The two countries have vowed to initiate proceedings to annul the decision at the EU Court of Justice.

Russia maintains that it is a reliable supplier, while denouncing Western sanctions as illegal. The country has successfully shifted exports to ‘friendly’ markets, primarily Asia, saying that the EU is shooting itself in the foot by banning cheaper energy.

US tech giant Google has reached a preliminary agreement to pay $68 million to settle a lawsuit alleging its voice-activated assistant spied on smartphone users, Reuters reported on Monday, citing court filings.

According to preliminary calculations reported by The Verge, customers who purchased a device may be eligible for a settlement payout of $18 to $56. Those who used Google Assistant or lived in a household with a device that reportedly recorded conversations could receive $2 to $10.

Smartphone users allege that Google, part of Alphabet, illegally recorded private conversations via Google Assistant and used them for targeted advertising, according to a preliminary class action settlement filed on Friday in the San Jose, California, federal court, as seen by Reuters. The settlement reportedly requires approval by US District Judge Beth Labson Freeman.

The voice-activated assistant is designed to respond when people use so-called ‘hot words’, such as ‘Hey Google’ or ‘Okay Google’, similar to Apple’s Siri and Amazon’s Alexa. The plaintiffs reportedly objected to receiving ads when Google Assistant incorrectly recognized their speech as hot words, a phenomenon referred to as ‘false accepts’.

The case highlights the ongoing tension between emerging technologies and user privacy. In November 2025, Google was sued over its AI assistant Gemini allegedly intercepting private communications across Gmail, chat, and video-conferencing services. In September, Google agreed to a $425.7 million settlement in a class-action lawsuit alleging privacy violations.

In December 2024, Apple settled for $95 million over claims that its Siri voice assistant recorded private conversations without user consent. Amazon has faced a nationwide class‑action lawsuit over alleged privacy violations by its Alexa voice assistant, with a federal judge allowing users to pursue claims that the devices recorded and retained private conversations without clear consent under consumer protection law.

Gold prices have surged to a new record, as investors seek safety from escalating global tensions and the volatility of the US dollar.

The February 2026 futures contract on Comex surpassed $5,100 per troy ounce on Monday, with a gain of roughly 2.5%, according to exchange data.

Analysts attribute the rally to market turmoil and policy shifts, including actions by the administration of US President Donald Trump aimed at influencing the Federal Reserve, his intention to acquire Greenland, and military intervention in Venezuela.

The prices of both gold and silver have soared over the past year, as precious metals are commonly viewed as safe-haven assets during periods of market turbulence. Gold rose by more than 60% in 2025, and silver by approximately 150%.

The rally has generated windfall gains for Russia that Bloomberg reports are comparable to the value of its sovereign assets frozen in the West, around $300 billion. Unlike the blocked funds, Russia’s gold reserves can be sold or pledged as collateral, restoring significant financial capacity.

According to the latest data from the Federal Assay Chamber, Russia’s gold reserves stood at 74.8 million troy ounces (2,326.54 metric tons) at the start of 2026. The market value of the bullion surged by nearly 67% over the previous year, from $195.7 billion to $326.5 billion as of January 1.

Reuters quoted analysts as saying that gold has more room to climb this year, potentially towards $6,000, on mounting global tensions and strong demand from central banks and consumers. The metal has already surged past JPMorgan’s late-December forecast, which projected it would “push toward $5,000/oz” by the fourth quarter of 2026.

Russia’s annual inflation slowed to its lowest level in five years in 2025, according to data from the country’s central bank. The figures show a marked easing in consumer price growth across much of the economy.

Year-on-year inflation stood at 5.59% in December, down from 6.64% in November, the Bank of Russia (CBR) reported this week. Over 2025 as a whole, price growth eased noticeably compared to the previous year, with non-food items rising by an average of 3% and some categories – including cars, electronics, footwear and household appliances – becoming cheaper. Services increased by 9.3% and food by 5.2%.

Seasonally adjusted, the monthly increase in prices in December was equivalent to about 2.6% in annualized terms. According to the regulator, measures of underlying, or “sustainable,” inflation remained in a 4-6% range, close to its 4% target.

The CBR has been gradually unwinding the emergency tightening introduced after Western sanctions and ruble volatility, when the key rate was briefly raised as high as 21% in October 2024. In December, it cut the rate for the fifth time since June, by 50 basis points to 16%, while pledging to keep policy “as tight as required” to bring inflation back on target.

“Our forecast assumes further cuts [in the key rate] during 2026,” Zabotkin said. “But inflation is still above the target, not to mention inflation expectations, which have not yet fallen significantly. Therefore, it is premature to say that it is already time to return to neutral monetary policy.”

Analyst Vladimir Yeryomkin of RANEPA’s Institute of Applied Economic Research told Rossiyskaya Gazeta that the 2025 data shows the CBR had largely managed to bring inflation under control, creating conditions for cautious rate cuts this year, while stressing that keeping inflation on track toward the 4% target must remain the priority.

In the German writer Ernst Junger’s macabre vignette ‘Violet Endives’, a man walks into a gourmet shop where the salesman speaks in matter-of-fact fashion about the delicacies on display – human flesh – and embarks upon a long explanation about the art of preparation. The story is a commentary on a society that accepts the appalling with barely the blink of an eye. 

Far less ghastly but displaying a similar business-as-usual spirit has been the establishment reaction to the massive surge in gold prices in the last couple of years. Gold prices have exploded higher of late but there are an awful lot of people trying hard not to notice this disconcerting trend; if noticing can’t be avoided, they try not to think much about why.

What the financial and political establishment resolutely do not want to see is the deeper restructuring of reserves taking place in light of the debasement of the dollar. 

Prices are soaring

In just a decade, gold has gone from around $1,000 per ounce to over $4,800 as of this week. In 2025 alone, gold added nearly 70% – despite relatively high interest rates (high rates usually push investors out of non-yielding gold). This is a huge flashing red light indicating something has broken deep in the bowels of the current monetary system. 

Yet the financial and political establishment pretends that it isn’t human flesh, so to speak, carved up on platters in the display case. 

“Prices are expected to push toward $5,000/oz by the fourth quarter of 2026, with $6,000/oz a possibility longer term,” JPMorgan wrote in late December in an end-of-year research note that used boilerplate language and analyst jargon in order to massively understate what is actually an extraordinary phenomenon. We’re not even through January and gold has already blown through most of JPMorgan’s full-year upside. 

There are many factors unnerving investors at the moment: Japan’s shaky bond market, the fraught geopolitical backdrop, and the general sense that the threads holding the world together are coming unraveled at an accelerating pace. Now, the ‘debasement trade’ – a belief that excessive debt and deficits are eroding the value of fiscal currencies – is making headlines. This profoundly underappreciated aspect strikes close to the truth. The gold price couldn’t have quadrupled in a decade and more than doubled in just two years on sentiment alone. 

Central banks are the true driver

The structural driver of the vertiginous rise of gold is that central banks have been fork-lifting the metal by the palette into their vaults. Early last year, I wrote about how this trend was ushering in a change in pricing power in the market. Whereas the gold market was previously dominated by Western institutional investors – who mostly bet on gold as a proxy for expected interest-rate moves – pricing is now being dictated outside of Wall Street as price-insensitive central banks load up on the metal. 

Gold is now the fastest-rising international reserve asset – largely to the detriment of the dollar. It is estimated to have reached 30% of total central-bank reserves as of late 2025. What’s more, actual gold holdings are likely significantly understated. What many don’t realize is that gold can move between governments without any disclosures. The main source of official information about each country’s gold holdings is what countries self-report to the IMF. Never an exact science, these figures may not even be ballpark-worthy anymore. 

Many governments buy gold through non-central bank entities for plausible deniability. There are, for example, numerous Chinese entities that report directly to the People’s Bank of China that can buy gold – but not have it be reported to the IMF. 

These opaque volumes are not just a few tons whisked around on the sly. The World Gold Council estimated in 2024 that around two-thirds of official-sector gold demand is now unreported. Analysts cited by the Financial Times believe, for example, that China’s unreported gold purchases could be more than ten times its official figures as it quietly diversifies away from the dollar. Gold analyst Jan Nieuwenhuijs calls these covert gold purchases a sort of “hidden dedollarization.” 

Looking beyond the dollar

Let’s linger for a moment on this idea. Imagine the dollar system as three concentric circles. The first and most visible is transactions (trade invoicing, settlement, cross-border payments); the second is funding/credit (dollar-denominated debt, global banking system); the third, inner circle is reserves/stores of value (central bank reserves, sovereign wealth, strategic assets). 

But it is this third category (reserves/stores of value) where the action is happening. There is of course a big chicken-or-egg question about which of these circles anticipates change in the others. Do countries inevitably start trying to hold as reserve assets the currencies they transact most in/borrow in or do transactions end up reflecting the currencies countries hold? 

There is good reason to believe that what is now happening in the third category will eventually be reflected in the other two. This does not, of course, mean trade will be settled directly in physical gold. Rather, we will see a much more decentralized settlement system (involving a neutral reserve asset and more local currencies), possibly with central banks netting out trade surpluses using gold. Think of this as tectonic pressure under a mountain range: The movement starts deep underground, but the surface topography shifts only much later. 

The tectonic pressure in this case is that holding dollars is now a losing proposition. This is the case not only because the greenback has become a bludgeon for subduing Washington’s adversaries (real and imagined), but because it is simply a bad investment. The US has absolutely no credible path to getting a grip on its spiraling debt and isn’t making the slightest effort to chart one, so it will almost certainly have to run negative real rates (interest rates below inflation levels) in order to erode the burden of its enormous debt over time. That’s pure erosion. 

The only other option is to let rates remain high and then suffocate under a higher debt-servicing bill – while also inviting a credit crisis. Faced with a choice between a quick death and a slow death, governments tend to choose the latter. The recent behavior of the Federal Reserve gives no reason to believe the debasement of the dollar won’t continue. 

This means the actual purchasing power of the dollar assets held by central banks across the globe is decreasing and will further decrease. It’s bad enough to have to worry about the capricious nature of US foreign policy, but to also slowly go broke by holding dollars is too much to ask of most of the world (except perhaps Western Europe). This will lead (or already is leading) certain large countries to seek to price key goods such as commodities in their own currencies, thus pushing the first two circles to where the third is already moving – i.e. away from the dollar. China is ahead of the curve on this. 

Ignoring the elephant in the vaults

Meanwhile, a state of denial prevails in the US establishment about the slipping status of the dollar. The Fed’s ‘The International Role of the U.S. Dollar – 2025 Edition’ boasts that the dollar represented “58% of disclosed global official foreign reserves in 2024 and far surpassed all other currencies.” Nevertheless, it admits, “central banks can hold gold as an alternative to foreign exchange reserves,” adding that the “share of gold in official reserve assets has more than doubled from below 10% in 2015 to over 23% now.” However, the Fed assures dryly that “this increase mostly reflects the over 200% increase in the gold price over that period.” 

No mention of the now widely acknowledged practice of off-the-books gold purchases; no attempt to reckon with calculations of actual central-bank holdings as estimated by respected analytical houses; and, most unusual of all for an institution as sophisticated as the Fed, no curiosity about what drove the more than 200% increase in the gold price over that period. Gold just happened to tick 200% higher? Just the odd portfolio re-allocation here and there? 

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent gave a further hint of establishment thinking in an interview with Tucker Carlson on April 7 of last year, just a few days after President Donald Trump’s ill-fated Liberation Day tariffs were introduced. The Treasury boss admitted that there is huge demand for gold in China, but explained it as follows: “[China] is in the middle of an economic recession slash depression, people don’t trust the Chinese currency, because they have capital controls; there are 1.4 billion Chinese who all want to get their money out, and [the government] won’t let them; they will let them buy gold.”

China is in a depression and nobody noticed! The 1.4 billion-strong population of China would like nothing more than to put their money in dollars, but, denied such an opportunity, they buy gold instead! The rise in gold apparently has nothing to do with erosion of the dollar’s value or credibility but is all about Chinese dysfunction! 

Contra Bessent, analysts such as Nieuwenhuijs argue that only a minority of China’s gold imports can be explained by retail demand, while the bulk is absorbed by sovereign or quasi-sovereign entities.

***

The chaotic dismantling of the Bretton Woods system in the 1970s led to gold having been removed to the margins of the system and it was the Americans’ intent for it to stay there. In 1975, US President Gerald Ford told German Finance Minister Helmut Schmidt that “we… feel strongly that some safeguards are necessary to ensure that a tendency does not develop to place gold back in the center of the system.” No subsequent US presidential administration has budged from that position.

Of course, the fact that gold was exiled from the heart of the financial system and turned recast as a toothless proxy for interest rates in the first place was a great coup – prepared by the US political establishment and engineered by Wall Street. 

But gold is indeed making a return to the center of the system. It is entirely appropriate that not only is a new monetary system being forged in which bullion will have a place of honor, this is happening via means unintelligible to the West – not through loud media campaigns, triumphant proclamations, or bullying, but as a quiet and patient restructuring of the entire foundation. 

French banking giants Societe Generale and BNP Paribas have announced plans to slash headcount as part of restructuring measures to reduce costs.

Societe Generale plans to cut 1,800 jobs in France by the end of 2027, the bank said in a statement on Thursday. The reductions will be carried out through natural attrition (not replacing staff who leave) rather than formal terminations, as the lender aims to move away from expensive redundancy programs, according to Financial Times.

The bank, which employs some 40,000 people in France, previously cut 900 posts at its headquarters in 2024. This was part of a broad efficiency drive launched by CEO Slawomir Krupa, who told FT last March that “nothing is sacred” when it came to operating the bank more efficiently.

Societe Generale has incurred a series of setbacks recently, including a €3.3 billion ($3.9 billion) hit from exiting the Russian market in 2022 following the escalation of the Ukraine conflict. The French banking group quit as part of a mass exodus of Western companies from the country.

The banks are downsizing during a challenging economic period. France has seen weak economic growth, while the country’s debt-to-GDP ratio reached a modern-era record of 117.7% last year, according to statistics agency Eurostat, and is projected to grow to 120% by 2027.

The political deadlock, triggered by the lack of an absolute majority in parliament since the 2024 elections, has reached a point where the government was forced to invoke a constitutional tool, Article 49.3, to pass the 2026 budget without a parliamentary vote earlier this week.

A harsh winter has forced Europe to draw on gas reserves at the highest rate in five years, with imports of liquified natural gas (LNG) failing to meet demand, Bloomberg has reported.

Withdrawals from storage in the EU averaged around 7.79 terawatt-hours per day, while LNG imports have been at less than half of that level, the outlet wrote on Friday. Gas stockpiles are now less than half full, far emptier than usual for the season, and prices have surged more than 30% this month, it noted. Bloomberg warned that filling up the storage for next winter may require state support.

The gap follows a sharp reduction in Russian pipeline gas imports since the escalation of the Ukraine conflict in 2022 and ensuing sanctions. Some remaining deliveries were curbed again at the start of 2025 when a transit agreement with Kiev expired. Russia once met about 50% of the EU’s needs. Last month, the bloc agreed to fully phase out Russian fossil fuels, including LNG, by the end of 2027.

Russia maintains that it is still a reliable supplier, while denouncing Western sanctions as illegal. The country has successfully shifted exports to ‘friendly’ markets.

The heavy reliance on storage is also a result of market economics, Bloomberg explained. LNG imports are less attractive when spot prices are high because the fuel is priced at those elevated market levels and includes shipping and regasification costs. Meanwhile, gas in storage was bought earlier at lower prices and can be withdrawn at a lower cost. This has led Europe to rapidly deplete its reserves instead of purchasing new LNG shipments, driving storage levels to multi-year lows.

Berlin should repatriate its gold reserves held in the US, a German lawmaker told Der Spiegel on Friday, citing concerns over US President Donald Trump’s “unpredictable” policies.

Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann, a member of the Free Democratic Party (FDP), said repatriating the reserves would reduce strategic risk amid growing uncertainty.

Gold prices have surged over the past four years, rising nearly 70% in 2025 alone, fueled by central bank demand, inflation concerns, and geopolitical tensions. Gold futures hit a record high this week, topping $4,860 an ounce, amid Trump’s renewed tariff threats against European countries that oppose his Greenland acquisition plan, which he later downplayed.

”At a time of growing global uncertainties and under the unpredictable US policies of President Trump, it is no longer acceptable that around 37% of Germany’s gold reserves, more than 1,230 tons, are stored in New York,” Strack-Zimmermann said.

The Bundesbank holds 1,236 tons of gold worth $178 billion at the US Federal Reserve in New York. For decades, a significant share of Germany’s reserves has been kept abroad due to historical and market factors.

Germany has stored part of its reserves overseas since the post-war economic boom, repatriating some gold from New York and Paris from 2013 to 2017. Around half of the reserves are now held domestically, with the remainder in New York and London.

Global central bank demand has been one of the factors behind rising gold prices, as countries seek to offset currency devaluation and other concerns. A recent Bloomberg report said the rise in Russia’s monetary gold reserves has offset much of the value of its assets frozen by Western countries, including the US, increasing by around $216 billion since February 2022. Rising prices have pushed Russia’s gold to 43% of total reserves, up from 21% before the Ukraine conflict, making it the world’s fifth-largest holder.

China sharply increased its purchases of Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) in 2025 and reached a record monthly volume in December, according to Chinese customs data cited by RIA Novosti.

In 2025, the Asian nation imported 9.8 million tons of the super-chilled fuel, up 18.3% from the previous year, the outlet reported.

December saw particularly strong growth, with imports rising to 1.9 million tons, a 114.6% increase from the 889,482 tons delivered in the final month of 2024.

Data also showed that in October, Russia became China’s second biggest LNG supplier, overtaking Australia and coming in slightly behind Qatar. Russia’s total gas supplies to China – via pipeline and in liquefied form – reached 5.8 billion cubic meters (bcm) in November 2025, a 33% increase from the same month a year earlier.

Imports of Russian LNG by China, one of the world’s largest gas consumers, have been rising steadily for several years. Alongside pipeline flows, Russia has expanded seaborne shipments from projects in the Arctic and the Far East, including Yamal LNG, Arctic LNG 2, and Sakhalin-2. Cargoes are transported largely via the Northern Sea Route during the summer navigation season and via longer southern routes in winter.

The surge in gas deliveries reflects a broader shift of Russia’s energy exports toward Asia following the sharp reduction of pipeline supplies to the EU since the escalation of the Ukraine conflict in 2022.

Russia also delivers natural gas to China via the Power of Siberia pipeline, which began operations in 2019 and reached full operational capacity in December 2024.

Moscow and Beijing are also advancing the planned Power of Siberia 2 pipeline through Mongolia. President Vladimir Putin has said that, together with existing and future pipelines, Russian gas deliveries to China could exceed 100 bcm a year.

Government debt of EU member states hit a two-year high in the third quarter of last year, with the burden in some countries reaching record levels amid the bloc’s growing militarization, according to the latest data.

As of the end of September 2025, the general government gross debt-to-GDP ratio in the bloc stood at 82.1%, the highest since 2023, statistics agency Eurostat reported on Thursday.

The figure marks a reverse of a period of post-pandemic debt rate decline, indicating that the bloc’s public finances are again deteriorating after governments borrowed heavily during the Covid-19 crisis and subsequently started trying to fix their budgets.

The debt burden reached modern-era record levels in France, Poland, and Romania, which recorded respective ratios of 117.7%, 58.1%, and 58.9%. Poland and Romania had the most notable annual increases of 5 and 5.5 percentage points respectively.

Officials in Brussels have explicitly linked new fiscal pressures to military needs. According to the European Commission, a “rapidly deteriorating strategic environment,” such as the Ukraine conflict and the perceived Russian threat, necessitate a significant increase in military spending. The commission’s ‘Readiness 2030’ plan is modelled to add 2 percentage points to the EU debt ratio by 2028.

EU military expenditure rose from €218 billion in 2021 to a projected €381 billion in 2025, a surge reportedly “turbocharged” by the escalation of the Ukraine conflict in 2022. Many Western officials have since claimed that Russia could threaten EU states.

A Bloomberg story making the rounds this week points out that the value of Russia’s monetary gold reserves has increased by $216 billion since February 2022, offsetting much of the roughly $300 billion in Russian reserves Western countries are trying to steal.

RT takes a look inside the somewhat opaque world of Russia’s gold holdings.

What Russia’s gold reserves are – and what they are not

The headline gold reserve figure published by Russia’s central bank (CBR) does not actually include all the gold held by the Russian state. It refers to only those gold holdings that qualify as monetary gold under the IMF definition – meaning it must be held by the monetary authorities (rather than the state treasury) and must be used as a reserve asset. Regarding the latter point, under the official definition, reserves can only be deployed for balance-of-payments needs, to ensure confidence in the currency, and for safeguarding financial stability. Reserve assets are not used for funding the government.

This is an important distinction that is often overlooked when talking about a country’s reserve holdings (including gold).

Russia’s gold reserves are almost never sold (more on that below) and the CBR had long been adding to its stockpile. However, it stopped reporting gold transactions to the IMF in 2022 and now only discloses the gold stockpile, though with delays, and somewhat more opaquely. 

How much gold does Russia´s central bank have – and why is it so much more valuable now?

The CBR has reported a relatively stable volume of gold since the escalation of the Ukraine conflict in February 2022. On March 1, 2022, it reported holding 73.9 million ounces. Nearly four years later, on January 1 of this year, that figure had inched up to 74.8 million (roughly 2,300 tonnes).

The gold price ended the month of February 2022 at around $1,900/oz. As of Wednesday of this week, gold was trading at just over $4,860/oz. Therein lies the enormous gain in the value of Russia’s reserves pointed out in the Bloomberg article. The gold price soared by nearly 70% in 2025 alone.

Has Russia been adding to its gold reserves?

When Western sanctions were introduced in 2014 in response to Crimea, the CBR began boosting its holdings of gold and yuan and reducing dollar assets. Between 2013 and 2021, Russia’s dollar holdings fell fourfold while gold increased to a fifth of overall reserves. Although Russia mostly stopped adding to the volume of official reserves in recent years, thanks to the price surge, bullion now represents 43% of the country's reserves. Officially, Russia is the fifth largest holder of gold reserves in the world.

What other gold the Russian state has besides official reserves

Russia has two other gold buckets: the National Wealth Fund (NWF, essentially a sovereign wealth fund) and Gosfund (a state repository of precious metals). Both are overseen by the Finance Ministry – thus putting them on the fiscal side and not on the monetary side – and both have been acquiring and deploying gold over the past few years.

What the deal with the NWF’s gold is

The NWF is used to stabilize the budget – think of it as a ‘rainy-day fund’. In May 2021, the Russian government decreed that the composition of the fund be 60% yuan and 40% gold, thus removing all exposure to the dollar.

Russia reported roughly 400 tonnes of gold around the time the conflict escalated in 2022. That figure was down to around 173 tonnes as of the beginning of November of last year. The selling of this gold – which doesn’t actually involve any gold leaving the country – has helped the Finance Ministry cover budget deficits.

While the roughly 60% decrease in the NWF’s gold holdings may look worrying, it’s important to note that, first of all, this gold does not represent reserves given that this channel is specifically for fiscal stabilization; second, the rise in the gold price has largely offset the depletion in monetary terms.

And what about Gosfund, the ‘gold shadow reserve’?

The third gold bucket, Gosfund, is the most opaque. It is funded by the Finance Ministry and buys its gold domestically for strategic and discretionary purposes. The bullion at Gosfund can be thought of as a gold shadow reserve.

Gosfund’s gold holdings are not disclosed but are believed to be sizable – meaning Russia’s actual buffer is almost certainly larger than is reported. Some analysts believe that Gosfund has actually acquired more gold than the CBR since the beginning of the Ukraine conflict.

In any discussion of Gosfund, it is important to note Russia’s position as the world’s second largest gold producer, at over 300 tonnes per year.

Are reported global gold figures generally reliable?

Not entirely, but in the sense that gold reserves tend to be structurally understated. Strategic gold buying has become notoriously opaque across the world in recent years.

A Financial Times article from November, citing World Gold Council data, estimated that in the most recent quarter only about a third of official (as opposed to private-sector) buying was publicly reported to the IMF. Central banks have various reasons for concealing the true extent of their buying. One particularly sensitive reason is to avoid showing the extent of their diminished confidence in the dollar.

So why did the CBR recently sell gold?

Last November, it was reported that the CBR had carried out a sale of gold from its reserves. At first glance, this was an unusual step and it led to certain less-than-neutral outlets claiming that Russia was “selling off its strategic reserves.” But the logic is as follows. When assets are sold from the NWF (either yuan for gold) to obtain rubles for the budget, the central bank mirrors that operation by doing an equivalent transaction in the domestic market.

Think of it as sterilization – but with yuan or gold. Usually this has been done with yuan, but because the domestic gold market has grown large and liquid, gold can now be used alongside yuan for these operations. This also makes sense because selling yuan (for rubles) could risk strengthening the ruble more than would be comfortable for the budget.

So has Russia made up most of what the EU is trying to steal?

Essentially, yes – but with a caveat. The increased value of Russia’s gold has indeed made up for most of the reserves frozen by the West, which are subject to a bitter and divisive dispute in the EU. The caveat is that the sanctions on Russia make the central bank’s gold holdings relatively illiquid. It would not be easy, for example, for the CBR to make a large gold sale to Asia. Of course, given that the funds frozen in the West are currently completely illiquid, even limited liquidity already increases Russia’s flexibility.

On the whole, the rising value of Russia’s already robust gold holdings is a strong indicator of the resilience of Russia’s reserves.

The European Parliament has voted to refer a trade agreement with the South American bloc Mercosur to the EU Court of Justice (CJEU). The move comes amid criticism of Commission President Ursula von der Leyen for bypassing normal EU procedures and widespread protests from farmers across the bloc.

On Saturday, the EU signed a trade pact with Mercosur members Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay. The agreement, which is projected to create the world’s biggest free trade zone, still requires approval before it can take effect.

On Wednesday, the EU Parliament voted 334 in favor to 324 against, with 11 abstentions, to ask the CJEU to determine whether the deal is compatible with the bloc’s rules. The move now significantly delays the pact that had been negotiated for 25 years, and could potentially derail final approval.

The vote took place against the backdrop of criticism of von der Leyen for handling the Mercosur deal in a non-transparent way, splitting it into separate agreements to bypass national parliaments and reduce the European Parliament’s role to a formal opinion.

Von der Leyen had pushed the deal, describing it as a “clear and deliberate choice,” highlighting that the EU opts for “fair trade over tariffs” and “a productive long-term partnership over isolation.” The pact came just six months after she signed an agreement with US President Donald Trump that imposed a 15% tariff on most EU exports. The EC president faced strong pushback over the US deal from current and former EU officials and heads of member states.

The EU is Mercosur’s second-largest trading partner, accounting for nearly 17% of the bloc’s total trade in 2024, at €111 billion.

Russia has benefited from a surge in gold prices since the escalation of the Ukraine conflict, earning windfall gains comparable to the value of the country’s sovereign reserves frozen in the West, Bloomberg reported on Tuesday. 

The Bank of Russia’s gold holdings have gained over $216 billion since February 2022, calculations show.

Western countries froze about $300 billion in Russian central bank assets as part of Ukraine-related sanctions. The majority of the funds are held at Belgium-based depository Euroclear. The EU has been debating using the funds as collateral for a so-called ‘reparations loan’ for Kiev, and in December extended the freeze with a long-term measure that would keep the assets blocked indefinitely.

The rise in the value of Russia’s gold holdings restores much of the country’s lost financial capacity, even if blocked reserves remain inaccessible, the outlet said. Unlike securities and cash frozen in Europe, the metal can still be sold or used as collateral if needed.

The value of Russia’s gold reserves more than doubled from February 2022 through end-2025, while holdings of foreign currencies and assets fell by about 14%, central bank data show. Gold now comprises 43% of total reserves, up from 21% prior to the Ukraine conflict.

Gold prices have surged over the past four years, jumping by 60% in 2025 alone, driven by robust demand from central banks, persistent inflation concerns, and heightened geopolitical tensions.

Precious metal futures surged to a record high on Tuesday, surpassing $4,720 per ounce and marking a 2.71% gain, exchange data showed. Analysts linked the rally to increased geopolitical risks, including US President Donald Trump’s renewed tariff threats against European countries opposed to his Greenland takeover plan.

The Russian Finance Ministry expects gold prices to continue to climb towards $5,000 per ounce and beyond.

Deputy Finance Minister Aleksey Moiseev said in December that the current rally stems from eroding confidence in global reserve currencies, adding that attempts to expropriate Russian assets are further bolstering demand.