LIVE UPDATES

Escalation watch: Russia issues warning as UK and EU ramp up war rhetoric

RT tracks the latest wave of psyops and propaganda from the UK and its allies

As war rhetoric from the UK and its Western European allies reaches a fever pitch, Russia has warned of nuclear consequences if the West follows through on its threats. With no letup in sight, RT is tracking the escalation and debunking the psyops in real time.

In a statement described by the Kremlin as an attempt to “cool down hot heads” in Europe, three Russian embassies warned on Wednesday that Russia is willing to use its entire arsenal, “including nuclear weapons,” if NATO takes military action against Kaliningrad or blockades the Russian exclave.

Moscow issues warning to NATO over Russian exclave

The statement comes after Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski called for a buildup of troops at the border of Kaliningrad, and after military exercises that the ministry views as preparations for a blockade of the Russian exclave.

Tensions are currently high after a week of intense fearmongering from British officials and journalists, in which retired generals told the BBC that the public must be “psychologically prepared” for conflict with Russia, a Labour Party thought leader suggested that dissidents and Russia sympathizers be “locked up,” and former Brexit Minister Jacob Rees-Mogg told British men and women that they “may have to die” in a cataclysmic European war.

This was a marked shift in rhetoric from the British elite. Since 2022, five successive prime ministers have insisted that the UK will arm Ukraine “for as long as it takes” to inflict a strategic defeat on Russia, but only a handful of bellicose generals and analysts have predicted an imminent military clash with Moscow. The tactical situation has not changed, and Russia has repeatedly insisted it has no interest in a wider conflict with NATO, but talking heads from both the Labour and Conservative parties are now speaking of war as a done deal.

Meanwhile, Sky News ran ‘The Wargame’ all week – a bizarre five-episode reality show in which real politicians and military chiefs gamed out a hypothetical Russian invasion for the cameras.

With the threat from Russia rising in the real world, a new series from Sky brings together former ministers and military chiefs to test what might happen if the UK faced an attack.

Watch the new TV Show 'Wargame' on Sky and NOW from 21 September pic.twitter.com/b9RcuqLHwF
— Sky News (@SkyNews) September 19, 2026

Britain’s political and media class also attempted to spin the arrest of five men near a US airbase on Sunday as an “attack” on the country, until the men were let go after counterterror police found no explosives, and apparently no evidence of a terrorist plot. Nevertheless, the incident was pinned on Iran, forcing Tehran to issue a sharp condemnation of the “malicious speculations published by some British individuals and media outlets.”

On the continent, Spain’s El Mundo claimed that the CIA had learned of a potential Russian plan to launch drones at France, Italy, or Spain from ships in the Mediterranean. The claim, attributed to Lithuanian intelligence, was quickly shot down by Paris and Rome, as Finnish President Alexander Stubb appealed for calm across the West.

The stakes – and the likelihood of miscalculation – are high. RT is watching and listening, and debunking the most outrageous war propaganda in real time.

30 September 2026
14:28 GMT
Spain’s El Mundo has claimed that “a Russian intelligence network” planned to assassinate exiled Russian opposition figure Ilya Ponomarev and anti-Kremlin activist Garry Kasparov on US soil earlier this year.
The report should be taken with a massive grain of salt. Last week, El Mundo claimed that Russia was developing plans to launch drones at targets in France, Italy, and Spain from ships in the Mediterranean. The newspaper attributed the claim to Lithuanian intelligence agents, but the French and Italian governments publicly declared it untrue, while Finnish President Alexander Stubb declared that the EU faces “no imminent military threat right now” from Russia.
13:55 GMT
As accusations of Russian “hybrid war” fly in Europe, even their loudest proponents always come to the same conclusion: “There is no imminent Russian military threat or military buildup across our borders.”
Honoured to meet Latvia’s President @edgarsrinkevics today in Riga for an in-depth conversation on our shared security and the foreign policy challenges before us.

We share the same assessment. There is no imminent Russian military threat or military buildup across our borders,… pic.twitter.com/iMxjaRZ2su
— Margus Tsahkna (@Tsahkna) September 30, 2026
Those are the words of Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna, who met with Latvian President Edgars Rinkevics in Riga today. Less than 24 hours ago, Rinkevics accused Russia of orchestrating a fire at a drone factory in Tallinn last month, which Russia denies.
Unlike real war, with its associated movements of troops and materiel, “hybrid war” is a term that can be thrown around with no evidence.
13:27 GMT
Take a look at how Moscow’s warning is being reported in the British media. After months of military exercises, the expansion of France’s nuclear deterrent to Russia’s borders, and borderline calls for war from Poland and the Baltics, the UK press thinks it’s a “bizarre response to [a] hypothetical wargame TV show.”
Zero responsibility, zero accountability.
NATO’s response was equally facetious. In a statement to Reuters, the bloc’s PR team said that “none of NATO’s exercises or activities pose a threat to the territory of the Russian Federation,” while an unnamed NATO diplomat brushed Moscow’s message off as “only another Russian attempt to intimidate Europeans.”
13:08 GMT
The threats against Kaliningrad that the statement mentions have been ongoing all year. Here’s a brief timeline:
- April 30 - May 6 – Lithuanian, Polish and Portuguese troops practice airstrikes in the Suwalki Corridor, a narrow strip of Polish and Lithuanian territory separating Belarus and Kaliningrad
- June 16-26 – French, Lithuanian, and Polish forces launch ‘Gallant Boar 2026’, a series of NATO military exercises in the Suwalki Corridor
- March - September – Denmark, Finland, Norway, Poland, and Sweden agree to join France’s “forward deterrence scheme,” in which they will host French nuclear weapons and take part in French nuclear exercises
- September 14 – Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski calls for “aggressive” NATO exercises on the Kaliningrad border, in order to keep Moscow “uncertain of what we will do”
- September 21 – Britain’s Sky News discusses a potential strike on Kaliningrad in ‘The Wargame’, a reality show simulating nuclear war with Russia
12:47 GMT
The Russian Foreign Ministry released a similar statement on Monday, which did not explicitly mention nuclear weapons. The latest version, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov just told reporters, was intended to “remind those hotheads in Europe” of Russia’s long-established conditions for the use of nuclear weapons.
Russia’s nuclear doctrine allows for the first use of atomic weapons in the event of a major conventional attack that creates a “critical threat” to its “sovereignty and territorial integrity,” or as a response to the “massive launch of aerospace attack weapons and their crossing of the state border of the Russian Federation.”
The document was updated in 2024 and is publicly available.
12:13 GMT
Russia has issued a stark response to the escalatory policies of the West, warning the “irresponsible and dangerous European political elite” that they’re playing “a dangerous game.”
“There should be no mistake – Russia would be ready to use all its arsenal, including nuclear weapons, to defend its territory if NATO countries try to isolate Kaliningrad region from the rest of the country,” the Russian Foreign Ministry said in a statement published on Wednesday.
⚡️ Statement by the Embassy of Russia in Ireland (September 29, 2026)

There has been an abundance of talk, recently, from the European political circles that Russia somehow is planning to launch a military invasion of Europe, escalate its alleged hybrid campaign against… pic.twitter.com/eQsrIUFwmL
— Russia in Ireland (@Rus_Emb_Ireland) September 30, 2026
In such a scenario, Russia could launch “preemptive strikes against centers of decision-making in the Alliance countries already at the early stage of the conflict,” the statement continued.
The statement comes after Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski called for a buildup of troops at the border of Kaliningrad, and after military exercises that the ministry views as preparations for a blockade of the Russian exclave.
29 September 2026
15:37 GMT
READ MORE: The RAF Fairford ‘terror plot’: Unpacking escalation in the UK echo-chamber

With Burnham sweeping the Fairford farce under the rug, we’re stopping our live updates for the afternoon. However, the Europeans are apparently determined to milk every drop of political capital from Estonia's “hybrid war” claims, and we’ll be watching how their words turn into action.
For anyone who missed our live coverage of the Fairford incident yesterday, our explainer here will bring you up to speed. As always, stick with RT as we track the war propaganda and debunk the psyops in real time.
14:32 GMT
Burnham has just wrapped up his speech without a single mention of the Fairford incident. His right-wing opponents say that he dropped the ball and allowed a group of Iran-linked terrorists to get within a hair’s breadth of blowing up a US military base, but a simpler theory says that they were diesel thieves caught in the wrong place at the wrong time.
With diesel at an all-time high of £2 ($2.64) per liter in the UK, there’s certainly motive for criminals.
14:21 GMT
Western leaders and journalists say that these unprovable drone incursions and fires are examples of Russia’s “hybrid war” against Europe. It’s a term that Moscow sees as loaded with double standards, and treats with derision, as seen in this exchange between Lavrov and BBC journalist Steve Rosenberg.
BBC’s Rosenberg: Do you admit that Russia is waging a covert hybrid war against European countries?

Lavrov: Are you referring to when we destroy the drones and missiles that Britain and continental Europe supply to Ukraine, which are then fired at us? Is that what you mean by… pic.twitter.com/XkLe49xcNX
— Margarita Simonyan (@M_Simonyan) September 29, 2026
“Are you referring to when we destroy the drones and missiles that Britain and continental Europe supply to Ukraine, which are then fired at us? Is that what you mean by hybrid war?” Lavrov responds to Rosenberg.
14:14 GMT
Regarding Estonia’s accusations, the Europe-wide response is following a predictable pattern. Wild claims from the Baltic states are taken at face value by Western European leaders, and used to justify hikes in military spending and further centralization of EU powers.
Denmark used claims of Russian drone incursions last year – which have never been proven – to push for the funding of a “drone wall” at an EU meeting in Copenhagen. EU defense ministers used Estonia’s arson claim to justify the creation of a new “emergency security protocol” and “European Defense Union” at a meeting on Monday.
A breakthrough in European defence is ripe to become a reality. And it starts with the establishment of a European Security Council and the development of a genuine European Defence Union.

My take on #SOTEU on European defence ⬇️https://t.co/JnjXqRazSe
— Andrius Kubilius (@KubiliusA) September 27, 2026
Lithuania’s allegation last week – that Russia could launch drones at France, Italy, or Spain from ships in the Mediterranean – was a step too far, however, and was rejected by Paris and Madrid.

28 September 2026
15:40 GMT
Welcome to RT’s live coverage of the wave of escalation spreading through political and media circles across Western Europe. You join us on Monday afternoon, and despite the fact that we’ve seen little concrete information about the apparent terror plot at RAF Fairford yesterday, British officials and talking heads have already put their own spin on events.
Speaking at a Labour Party conference Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband described the incident as an example of “the threats our country faces,” and called on the public to “roll up our sleeves” and “fight for our values.” Miliband did not assign blame for the supposed attack plot, but still insisted that there would be a “fight” ahead.
"We will always stand up for our security against those who would do us harm"

Foreign Secretary Ed Milliband says the suspected terror plot at RAF Fairford is a 'reminder of the threats our country faces' pic.twitter.com/cnh4temCHw
— Sky News (@SkyNews) September 28, 2026
On Sky News, Elizabeth Braw – a ‘security expert’ at the NATO-funded Atlantic Council – warned that “conflict is coming to the UK.”
“It’s not going to be just Iran. We already know that Russia is commissioning people to carry out attacks in the UK,” she claimed. Iran has denied any role in the Fairford ‘plot’, and there is no evidence that Russia has carried out, or paid anyone else to carry out “attacks” in the UK.
15:43 GMT
The five men arrested at RAF Fairford have been released on bail, but are still under investigation, counterterror police chief Laurence Taylor has said.
The decision suggests that police didn’t find enough evidence to extend their detention, but Taylor insisted that “they absolutely remain under investigation.”
Nor has Taylor shut down speculation about foreign involvement. “We are considering this from every possible angle,” he said, “including that this may be activity committed by proxies, or individuals either knowingly or unknowingly, working on behalf of a foreign state.”
15:46 GMT
READ MORE: Five Britons probed over suspected bomb plot outside US air base

It’s worth taking a moment to look at what exactly happened at RAF Fairford, a Royal Air Force base used solely by the US Air Force.
What we know for certain is that five men, described by counter-terror police as residents of London, were arrested near the base on Sunday morning, after a local farmer alerted authorities to three suspicious vans parked in the area.
Everything else is unclear. The farmer told Sky News that it took almost six hours for police to respond to her calls, and that she saw at least seven other men escape into nearby woodland. Multiple British media outlets have said that the operation was not “intelligence-led,” meaning the men were not under surveillance, but US President Donald Trump suggested that American and British agents had the five men “under review for a long time.”
Bomb squad robots searched the three vans, but it is unclear whether any explosives were found. Further information about the suspects, including where they are being detained, is being kept under wraps. According to a photograph published by the BBC, some of the men appear to be Middle Eastern or north African in origin.
Although Prime Minister Andy Burnham has urged the public “not to speculate while the authorities establish the full facts,” several media outlets and analysts have fingered Iran as the chief suspect. Tehran has said that it “categorically rejects and strongly condemns the recent unfounded and malicious speculations.”
15:50 GMT

Read more
Britain’s elites want you ready to die for a war they keep imagining

Fairford is dominating the headlines today, but the media’s response is not happening in a vacuum. The rampant speculation – particularly Sky News’ security expert mentioning Iran and Russia in connection with the incident – comes after weeks of panic-mongering in the UK and mainland Europe, all of it centered around the supposed threat of a Russian attack.
If you’re just catching up, RT columnist Tarik Cyril Amar broke down the “absurdities, inconsistencies, and plain silliness” of the war rhetoric in an op-ed last week, concluding that Britain’s “insane and malevolent” elites “want you ready to die for a war they keep imagining.”
The last sentence is key: Russia has repeatedly declared that it has no intention of or interest in a war with the UK. The threat remains imaginary.
15:56 GMT
Burnham is currently chairing a COBRA (Cabinet Office Briefing Rooms) meeting to discuss the RAF Fairford incident. Speaking to reporters earlier this afternoon, the prime minister said that the meeting would “make sure we have the full picture, the full situation very clearly in our sights and so maybe we’ll say more about that later today.”
On social media, some alternate explanations have begun to emerge, including the theory that the suspects were common criminals attempting to steal agricultural diesel from farmers in the area.
This RAF Fairford stuff is probably going to turn out to be a bunch of idiots attempting to steal Red Diesel from farms in an area they didn't actually know were close to an RAF base, isn't it?
— Gregg 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 (@GreggC_CC) September 28, 2026
This theory would explain the plastic drums visible in aerial footage of the vans, and the surprise decision to grant the men bail. It’s just a theory for now, but it’s a potentially embarrassing one for Milliband, Braw, and the other politicians and experts who jumped straight to describing the incident as an “attack.”
16:14 GMT
Even before they took to the airwaves this morning, Sky News’ analysts had the public primed to view the Fairford incident as a terror plot. Over five nights last week, ‘The Wargame’ treated viewers to a “constructed documentary” depiction of a Russian attack on the UK, which began with the assassination of two RAF officers and the sinking of a British vessel by a Russian submarine.
A cast of British politicians and military chiefs then decide, in front of a live audience, whether to use nuclear weapons against Russia. Their decision is never revealed.
Why Nicola Sturgeon now thinks differently about defence

Sky has launched its new four-part series The Wargame - looking at what could happen if Russia was to launch an attack on UK soil. To watch the full interview download and subscribe to the Sky News Defence Insider app.… pic.twitter.com/IcPvkAaR2z
— Sky News (@SkyNews) September 26, 2026
Defense Secretary Wes Streeting praised the show for boosting public support for increased military spending. At a preview screening in London, Streeting thanked its producers for writing his “spending review submission.”
16:16 GMT
‘The Wargame’ is not the first series of its kind, or even of its name. Back in 1965, the BBC commissioned a “pseudo-documentary” called ‘The War Game’, which depicted an all-out nuclear war between the UK and Soviet Union. Unlike Sky News’ series, the 1965 production juxtaposed calls for war from public figures with the bleak aftermath of a nuclear attack – mass deaths, starvation, and the breakdown of law and order.
It was never aired, with the BBC determining that it would be “too horrifying for the medium of broadcasting.”
Sky showed no such restraint, with its series seemingly designed to turn dovish politicians into Russia hawks, and manufacture consent for the kind of military spending hikes that make the worst-case-scenario depicted in 1965 more likely.
16:51 GMT

Read more
NATO article 5 is not what you think it is

Oftentimes, the most bellicose Western politicians and analysts discuss war with Russia under the assumption that all 32 NATO member states would automatically be involved. This, Russian International Affairs Council President Dmitry Trenin wrote for RT on Sunday, is a “myth.”
Article 5 of the 1949 Washington Treaty was carefully written in order to limit the US’ exposure to a potential nuclear war in Europe. It requires each member only “to take such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area” in the event of a conflict.
In ‘The Wargame’, the US does not intervene, leaving the UK to fight a nuclear war with Russia minus 88% of NATO’s nuclear arsenal. That some of the series’ participants still consider such a war winnable illustrates just how divorced from reality its premise really is.
17:04 GMT
Back in Fairford, multiple UK media outlets are reporting that no “viable explosives” were found in any of the three vans. That’s another point for the ‘diesel theft’ theorists, and directly contradicts The Guardian, which claimed that “armed officers found explosives in three vans.”
The Guardian would be due a lecture on the dangers of spreading “disinformation,” if senior officials and its media competitors hadn’t jumped on the same bandwagon.
17:12 GMT
Despite the fact that no explosives were found and all five suspects were released on bail, British Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood is still trying to spin the incident as a counterterrorism victory and milk it for propaganda value.
”Thanks to the Army’s explosive ordinance disposal team, the scene is now safe,” Mahmood said at the Labour Party’s conference, omitting the fact that there was apparently no ordinance to dispose of.
‘You will never defeat us.’

Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood addresses the Labour conference and updates on the foiled RAF bomb plot.

📺 Freeview 236, Sky 512, Virgin 604 pic.twitter.com/W1fENvJH7r
— GB News (@GBNEWS) September 28, 2026
“To all those who mean us harm and plot violence on our soil, let this be a reminder: you will never defeat us,” she added.
There is still no evidence that anyone plotted violence, and every new development this afternoon has suggested that the incident was not terror-related or connected with any foreign nation or group.